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Egypt Open Thread: Feb 11 – Mubarak's Long Goodbye UPDATED

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Last night in Cairo hundreds of thousands of people of all walks of life stood in Tahrir Square waiting for their ‘President’ of thirty years to announce his resignation.

Instead, the crowd was presented with the face of a crooked old man lost inside the stained-glass windows of the billionaire palace lifestyle his people have paid for.

It is past dawn in Egypt today, and the forces aligned against each other will play out one way or another.

Consider this an Open Thread

The Transcript of Hosni Mubarak’s speech.

The tools being used are predictable for a dictatorial regime. (sic)”It isn’t me, it isn’t you, it is Foreigners”:

I will not (submit ?) to any — to any foreign interventions or dictations, regardless of their sources and regardless of their excuses

He told his citizens that they were children, and he was the wise father figure:

I want to relay my message from bottom of my heart, the message from a father

My dear sons and my dear citizens

I added this comment to Al Jazeera’s liveblog, and I hope the people of Egypt are ahead of me.

Be peaceful, be strong.

The game the regime is playing is to instigate violence among the protesters then have an excuse for using violence “back”.

Don’t give them the chance, folks. Best of luck to you all.

Good luck to the Egyptian people today.

What are your thoughts, Mooses?

UPDATE: 18.04 CAIRO TIME: MUBARAK STEPS DOWN


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81 comments

  1. Stipes

    will tell the tale of where this goes for the next few months.  

    If the regime reacts with violence, it will move rapidly into a true revolutionary phase.  I think that all bets will be off at that point and nobody will be able to predict the final outcome.

    If, however, this continues on with massive protests and strikes with no overt violence from the regime, then I’ll be much more optimistic about a real transition to democracy.

  2. Shaun Appleby

    Fallout from the speech:


    5:52am Thousands of protesters have moved overnight towards the sensitive presidential palace, in the upscale neighbourhood of Heliopolis in central Cairo.

    In addition to Tahrir Square, pro-democracy protests have already blocked access to the parliament building near the Liberation Square.

    Thousands of protesters were also surrounding the radio and television building in Cairo, which they see as a mouthpiece for Mubarak’s regime.

    Live blog Feb 11 – Egypt protests AJE 11 Feb 11

    Looks like this is headed to a crisis pretty soon.

  3. Peter Jukes

    Brilliant analogy from Slajov Zizek

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/glob…

    When an authoritarian regime approaches the final crisis, its dissolution tends to follow two steps. Before its actual collapse, a rupture takes place: all of a sudden people know that the game is over, they are simply no longer afraid. It is not only that the regime loses its legitimacy; its exercise of power itself is perceived as an impotent panic reaction. We all know the classic scene from cartoons: the cat reaches a precipice but goes on walking, ignoring the fact that there is no ground under its feet; it starts to fall only when it looks down and notices the abyss. When it loses its authority, the regime is like a cat above the precipice: in order to fall, it only has to be reminded to look down …

    Mubarak has lost all authority. He can’t pull the country together. However, in the manner of his parting, he can still pull the country apart.

    The military split will be between older and younger officers, or between the army (more progressive) and the airforce (Mubarak’s old force) and the Presidential Guard.

  5. jsfox

    In the statement, read out on state television, the military appeared to support Mr. Mubarak’s insistence, laid out in a speech on Thursday night, that he would remain in power until elections are held, delegate some unspecified authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman and oversee constitutional change.

    At the same time, in an effort to meet some of the protesters’ demands, the military said it would guarantee the lifting of Egypt’s emergency law once the current protests were over and would defend “the lawful demands of the people.” The law was imposed after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981 – which enabled Mr. Mubarak, then the vice president, to take power. Protesters say it has been used to suppress opposition.

    The military’s statement, labeled Communiqué No. 2, followed an announcement on Thursday offering “affirmation and support for the legitimate demands of the people.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02…

  7. Shaun Appleby


    3:02pm Heavy security contingent surrounding the presidential palace in Alexandria with snipers on top of all the buildings surrounding the area – protesters continue streaming towards the palace.

  9. Strummerson

    10:43am Photo sent in by journalism student @ghazalairshad from Tahrir Square with caption “broken bones but not broken spirit”.

  10. Strummerson

    From two days ago:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02…

    What the Muslim Brothers Want

    By ESSAM EL-ERRIAN

    Cairo

    THE Egyptian people have spoken, and we have spoken emphatically. In two weeks of peaceful demonstrations we have persistently demanded liberation and democracy. It was groups of brave, sincere Egyptians who initiated this moment of historical opportunity on Jan. 25, and the Muslim Brotherhood is committed to joining the national effort toward reform and progress.

    In more than eight decades of activism, the Muslim Brotherhood has consistently promoted an agenda of gradual reform. Our principles, clearly stated since the inception of the movement in 1928, affirm an unequivocal position against violence. For the past 30 years we have posed, peacefully, the greatest challenge to the ruling National Democratic Party of Hosni Mubarak, while advocating for the disenfranchised classes in resistance to an oppressive regime.

    We have repeatedly tried to engage with the political system, yet these efforts have been largely rejected based on the assertion that the Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organization, and has been since 1954. It is seldom mentioned, however, that the Egyptian Administrative Court in June 1992 stated that there was no legal basis for the group’s dissolution.

    In the wake of the people’s revolt, we have accepted invitations to participate in talks on a peaceful transition. Along with other representatives of the opposition, we recently took part in exploratory meetings with Vice President Omar Suleiman. In these talks, we made clear that we will not compromise or co-opt the public’s agenda. We come with no special agenda of our own – our agenda is that of the Egyptian people, which has been asserted since the beginning of this uprising.

    We aim to achieve reform and rights for all: not just for the Muslim Brotherhood, not just for Muslims, but for all Egyptians. We do not intend to take a dominant role in the forthcoming political transition. We are not putting forward a candidate for the presidential elections scheduled for September.

    While we express our openness to dialogue, we also re-assert the public’s demands, which must be met before any serious negotiations leading to a new government. The Mubarak regime has yet to show serious commitment to meeting these demands or to moving toward substantive, guaranteed change.

    As our nation heads toward liberty, however, we disagree with the claims that the only options in Egypt are a purely secular, liberal democracy or an authoritarian theocracy. Secular liberal democracy of the American and European variety, with its firm rejection of religion in public life, is not the exclusive model for a legitimate democracy.

    In Egypt, religion continues to be an important part of our culture and heritage. Moving forward, we envision the establishment of a democratic, civil state that draws on universal measures of freedom and justice, which are central Islamic values. We embrace democracy not as a foreign concept that must be reconciled with tradition, but as a set of principles and objectives that are inherently compatible with and reinforce Islamic tenets.

    The tyranny of autocratic rule must give way to immediate reform: the demonstration of a serious commitment to change, the granting of freedoms to all and the transition toward democracy. The Muslim Brotherhood stands firmly behind the demands of the Egyptian people as a whole.

    Steady, gradual reform must begin now, and it must begin on the terms that have been called for by millions of Egyptians over the past weeks. Change does not happen overnight, but the call for change did – and it will lead us to a new beginning rooted in justice and progress.

    Essam El-Errian is a member of the guidance council of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

  11. jsfox

    via Al Jazeera

    4:39pm The Egyptian presidency is to make an “urgent and important” statement shortly, state television says.  

  12. Stipes

    I think the Egyptians are setting a blueprint for modern democracy movements in Arab countries.

    Here’s another reason:

    9:51am  An army officer joining protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square says 15 other middle-ranking officers have also gone over to the demonstrators.

    “The armed forces’ solidarity movement with the people has begun,” Major Ahmed Ali Shouman tells Reuters.

    Highly doubtful that the Army is going ignite an internal mutiny by firing on it’s own.

  13. Shaun Appleby


    4:39pm The Egyptian presidency is to make an “urgent and important” statement shortly, state television says.

    This will be interesting.  The “Egyptian presidency” seems pretty generic and uncertain at the moment.

  15. jsfox

    Al Jazeera

    The term ‘Muslim Brotherhood’…is an umbrella term for a variety of movements, in the case of Egypt, a very heterogeneous group, largely secular, which has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam.

    They have pursued social ends, a betterment of the political order in Egypt, et cetera…..In other countries, there are also chapters or franchises of the Muslim Brotherhood, but there is no overarching agenda, particularly in pursuit of violence, at least internationally.

    And heads on the right and Fox news will start exploding shortly.

  16. jsfox

    4:53pm Military helicopters arrive at Cairo’s Presidential Palace ahead of expected statement – more details soon.

    Hmm does this mean that the military has no truly taken over? Not predicting though

  17. jsfox

    http://andrewsullivan.theatlan…

    Breaking BBC Arabic: Hossam Badrawi, Secretary General of the ruling NDP “I will be announcing my resignation from the NDP within hours”

    Michael Hanna responds to the news:

    With Badrawi’s resignation, a key demand of the protestors is essentially met because the NDP will no longer exist as a serious entity.

  18. Rashaverak

    cable companies rethink their prior position as regards not carrying Al Jazeera’s English-language service, or the English-language service from Al Arabiya.

    Considering how important the Middle East is, it is in our national interest for citizens to be informed about the region.  None of us have to agree with everything said on a particular cable channel.  We might even disagree with a lot of it, but can still benefit from first-hand exposure.  I listen to right-wing talk radio from time to time for the same reason.

    Of course, the principle is not only limited to the Middle East.  We might benefit from seeing a state-run English-language service from, e.g., China.  Seems to me that it would be a better use of bandwidth than the Home Shopping Network or some such.

    Perhaps the larger lesson from all of this is that channel-based cable systems are themselves relics, and that we don’t have to put up with gatekeepers like Comcast deciding what channels we can watch and which channels we can’t watch.  We can go to the source’s web sites and watch video streams.  

  21. Strummerson

    Now we get to watch Suleiman maneuver to try and co-opt this moment for himself.

    Pivotal moment, but a long way to go…

  23. Strummerson

    In these days of the evil presidentes

    Working for the Clampdown

    Lately one or two have fully paid their dues

    Working for the Clampdown

    Kick over the wall, ’cause governments will fall

    How can you refuse it?

    Let fury have the hour, anger can be power

    You know that you can use it!

    And use it they did, while maintaining solidarity with one another and without descending into savagery.

    They have schooled the world in democratic political possibilities.

    And there’s one more place in the world today where the US is no longer on the wrong side of history.

  25. Strummerson

    In these days of the evil presidentes

    Working for the Clampdown

    Lately one or two have fully paid their dues

    Working for the Clampdown

    Kick over the wall, ’cause governments will fall

    How can you refuse it?

    Let fury have the hour, anger can be power

    You know that you can use it!

    And use it they did, while maintaining solidarity with one another and without descending into savagery.

    They have schooled the world in popular democratic political possibilities.

    And there’s one more place in the world today where the US is no longer on the wrong side of history.

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