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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Open Thread: Have We Already Won?

With more than a year and a half until we pull a lever for President…has Obama already won?

When you look at the pool of possible Republican contenders, I can’t help but think the answer is yes. I felt as such before the events of this past week.

Before Obama graciously assisted in the application of egg to face by providing his long form birth certificate.

Before his masterful comic delivery at the correspondents dinner.

Before he put to rest any hope of labeling him as weak on the ‘War On Terror’ with the neatly wrapped body of Osama Bin Laden deposited on the bottom of the ocean.

While it is true that anything can happen….and November 2012 is a lifetime away politically…I just can’t shake the belief that Obama has already won the hard part of the battle.

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He has won RESPECT.

Yeah, yeah…I know…he has not won the respect of most Republicans. But, truly, did anyone EVER expect that? I do believe, however, that as grudging as it may be…he won the respect of SOME Republicans this last week. At the very least they are beginning to respect the fact that he is a formidable foe and not the naive upstart they have long painted him.

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I look at the slate of names put forth as possible contenders for the Republican ticket and I am horrified. I honestly cannot imagine a one of them as President…hell, I can’t imagine some of them as captain of my neighborhood watch.

More and more I believe that 2012 will not so much be about the Presidency…but about how long Obama’s coattails are. Will they be long enough to win back the House? To hold the Senate? I think that the hard battles are going to be at the State level…and I hope that that is how Obama runs his campaign. As a platform to promote Democrats in each State with more fervor than given to promote himself.

Here are just a few of the more recognizable who are flirting with running:

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Pretty pathetic, IMO.

I guess Republicans have to ask themselves:

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I ain’t worried, yo.

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/grin

Who do YOU think is going to run?

Who do YOU thing is going to win the Republican nod?

Who do YOU think is going to be our President in 2012?

And, just for fun…who do you think will run for the Democratic nod in 2016?

Use this as an Open Thread.

Have at it.

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Categories: Uncategorized.

/ 190 Comments

190 comments

  1. Kysen

    yet.

    Those who know me know that I will set to frettin’ as the election nears. But, here and now, I am nothing but confident.

    A lot can happen…but, the way I look at it…a lot already HAS happened…and Obama has come through again and again.

    In other news….

    anyone ever seen the BACKSIDE of a peacock’s tail?

    Photobucket

  2. Shaun Appleby

    Hell, I’m thinking it’s time to crank up a campaign to repeal the Twenty-second Amendment and start planning the preliminary studies for Mount Rushmore.  Those ears will be a challenge.

    Somehow I had always imagined cheering crowds outside the Obama White House sooner or later.

  3. jsfox

    I refuse to lull myself into – this will be a cake walk. The American voter can be collective idiots so no he hasn’t won . . .  yet. Well talk November 3rd 2012 🙂

  4. DTOzone

    I have a hard time imagining the country defeats the man who caught Bin Laden.

    But this is America and I never underestimate their propensity to make stupid decisions.  

  5. spacemanspiff

    His presidency has been relatively controversy free with very few selfinflicted wounds. I can’t imagine any of these GOP hopefuls (except Romney maybe) running a serious campaign.

    As for 2016 I’m thinking we will nominate a female.

    Almost certain of it.  

  6. HappyinVT

    substantive comment later but:

    A senior U.S. military official Monday credited President Obama for having a prominent role in pushing and shaping the plan to get Osama bin Laden

    snip

    On Tuesday, White House officials began to offer more details on exactly how Obama had shaped the final assault plan. In particular, the President, they said, urged the Pentagon to revisit the number of helicopters it planned to bring into Pakistani airspace on the mission.  One of those extra helicopters later played a role in the mission.The president made his concerns known in a briefing about 10 days before the assault on the bin Laden compound. According to senior aides, Obama felt that the special operations COA, or course of action, was too risky. Under the COA at that time, only two helicopters would enter Pakistani airspace, leaving little backup if something went wrong. “I don’t want you to plan for an option that doesn’t allow you to fight your way out,” the President told operational planners at the meeting, according to the notes of one participant.

    Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2011…

    They ended up going with four helicopters one of which would be used after another one experienced mechanical difficulty and was left behind.

  8. HappyinVT

    Washington (CNN) – Jon Huntsman formed a federal political action committee on Tuesday, taking his first concrete step toward a presidential campaign since returning from his post last week as ambassador to China.

    Huntsman filed papers with the Federal Election Commission to create “H-PAC,” an organization that will allow him to pay for staff and travel to key caucus and primary states as he considers a bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012. http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

    I’m not sure he’s nutty enough for the primaries.  I also figure that having worked for that Kenyan Usurper might cause some damage.  Last poll I saw didn’t have him all the popular in his home state.

  9. sricki

    has some interesting (and quite cautious) thoughts on this (1, 2).

    Back later with more substantive commentary.

    (Maybe.)

  12. Chris Blask

    I like Huntsman and Huckabee, in that order, the rest give me the willies.

    Huntsman is too young and too Mormon, Huckabee too Evangelical. Cannot picture either winning.

  13. DTOzone

    Democrats won a special election in Wisconsin for a State Assembly seat that had been Republican for 15 years. The seat was vacated by an incumbent who resigned to join Gov. Scott Walker’s administration.

    This bodes well for the Senate recalls.  

  14. DeniseVelez

    is now a candidate to be

    http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    Former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman took his first step toward a presidential run Tuesday, creating a federal political action committee that will allow him to travel and raise money in the weeks before he’s expected to formally announce a bid.

    Moving swiftly since his return to Washington from Beijing Friday, Huntsman filed paperwork with the Federal Election Committee to begin “H PAC.” In the event he runs, the organization will be the last placeholder before he announces a full-blown campaign.

    I know nothing about him – but he looks like a “serious” rather than cartoon candidate.

  15. DeniseVelez

    to say anything much about the O-man’s chances.  He still has most of the press against him outright or sniping. And then there are the “leftists”.  Sigh.

    On the economy:

    I’m hoping he will make moves soon to do something about gas prices at the pump.  Like open the spigot to some of our reserves.

    Seems to be the major discussion where I live.

    Voters:

    We need to put more people on the ground – now. Getting new folks registered – especially in the Spanish speaking community. He also needs to do something about ICE – and the deportation of Dream Act kids – it’s really pissing off Latino bloggers.

    If pissed off lefties are going to vote against him – those votes have to be replaced from somewhere.

    The largest pool of unregistered voters is in the varied Latino communities.

  16. Kysen

    and don’t know if it has been discussed elsewhere on Moose.

    Ever since the announcement of Osama Bin Laden’s long overdue demise…there have been a couple of quotes seen in the comments of near every blog I visit.

    One is attributed to Martin Luther King Jr. and is put forth as a bit of a ‘tsk tsk’ to those who cheered the death of Bin Laden.

    The other is attributed to Mark Twain and implies that, while one may not have wished for his death…it is still met with some degree of satisfaction.

    Both are WRONG.

    The quote being shared as though it is from MLK is actually a mash-up of his words with an intro of another’s opinion.

    Here is the quote being bandied about:

    “I mourn the loss of thousands of precious lives, but I will not rejoice in the death of one, not even an enemy. Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”

    Here are his actual words minus the added opinion.

    “Returning hate for hate multiplies hate, adding deeper darkness to a night already devoid of stars. Darkness cannot drive out darkness: only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.

    Does not quite have near the same ‘holier than thou’ bite that most of those posting it these last few days seem to have intended.

    Now, the Mark Twain ‘quote’ is not near as ‘down the nose’ish’ and is actually quite tongue in cheeky (just as one would expect from Twain).

    However, it, too, is incorrect.

    Here is the quote that has become quite the meme:

    “I’ve never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.”

    It is thought that it could be a misquote of something Clarence Darrow (Scopes Monkey Trial) said:

    “I have never killed any one, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.”

    Add that to a bit of confusion/mistaken identity with this, an actual quote from Mark Twain, and you likely have the cause of the incorrect attribution:

    “I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.”

    Just a bit of Wednesday geekiness for ya.

  17. spacemanspiff

    Today it’s a diary by written by David Swanson a person who served as press secretary for Dennis Kucinich’s 2004 presidential campaign.

    One of the good guys!

    Obama Bin Lynched

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

    Of course, we used to have lynch mobs in this country. Ask the freedom riders who left for the deep south 50 years ago today. But we had outgrown that. We were not driven by blind vengeance. We were civilized. The reason we locked up far more people in prison than any other country and killed some of them was a purely rational calculation dealing with prevention, deterrence, and restitution. We weren’t monsters. We didn’t torture or cut people’s heads off.

    No surprise the Tip Jar has been uprated to counter h’rate abuse more than a dozen times. This is the kind of crap Denise and other members of the Black Kos community have to put up with almost every single day. Right here in Left Blogistan where we should know better. Yeah right.

    Let’s compare innocent people who were tortured and murdered because of the color of their skin to Osama fucking Bin Laden.

    What a wonderful idea.

    ::smh::

    “Now now you Obama apologists can’t stand when Barry gets some heat. Your argument is a strawman. Not everything is about race like you people try to make it out to be. We are the extreme left remember. Only Teabaggers are racist! That’s why we can tip diaries with titles like Osama Bin Lynched. Everybody knows progressives aren’t clueless to racism.”

  18. DTOzone

    I’m ambivalent about them because I would’ve taken great pains to avoid seeing them anyway, I’m not interested, just as I wasn’t interested in seeing the Saddam hanging video and the video of Daniel Pearl being beheaded…never seen either, never intend to.

    But I got really pissed at a friend of mine who said we owed it to the families of 9/11 victims to release the photos and we’re too political correct.

    I said to them, no, we owed it to them to find and kill him, we don’t owe it to them to plaster the photos of his corpse all over the world. That’s literally their own excuse “9/11 families want to see them.”

    They’re covering their own desire to get their jollies off seeing a dead corpse by invoking 9/11 families.

    Fucking brutes.  

  19. HappyinVT

    Dear Donald,

    Is okay to call you that? Donald? Just Donald? And not the Donald? ‘Cause there are other Donalds out there: Rumsfeld, Ronald Mc, Duck.

    Also, Ohio State kind of has the pretentious “the” thing wrapped up.

    Anyway, we hear that you’ve been tabbed to drive the pace car at the upcoming Indianapolis 500. We also hear that there’s a Facebook page with over 5,300 supporters calling on the race to, um, downsize your role as said driver. Which is bunk. This is America. Land of the free, yadda, yadda, yadda. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway has every right to invite you. You have every right to participate. In fact, we’re in your corner. Provided you can clear up one tiny disquieting detail.

    Show us your driver’s license.

    Look, it’s nothing personal. We’re not suggesting anything untoward. We’re just saying that it’s pretty unusual that a guy who typically rolls in a chauffeured limo when he’s not using a private chopper to get around Manhattan suddenly and mysteriously finds himself behind the wheel of the most important car in the country.

    Doesn’t that seem a little strange?

    Do we know that you’re legally qualified to operate an automobile?

    http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/…

  20. John Allen

    I want to through out a thought about the Dem ticket.

    In 2012, Joe Biden will be 70 years old. Even though the position of VP is fairly easy, he may be ready to retire. It is also possible the election may be tougher than hoped for if the economy is still in rough shape and the Gopers nominate a half-sane candidate. In that case, the Dems may want to beef up their ticket with a stronger VP candidate.

    In 2012, Hillary Clinton will be 65 years old. She will have added to her illustrious resume with a 4 year stint as, arguably, the most powerful woman in the world as the U.S. Secretary of State. Polls show that she is the most respected female politician in the country. She was a credible candidate in 2008 at the top of the ticket and is even stronger today.

    SoS Clinton has said she is done with public office when she ends her current stint in the cabinet. However, I believe she can be convinced to take a spot on the ticket by appealing to her loyalty to the Democratic Party and to her country. It would also position her as the strongest potential candidate in 2016. Even if she decided not to run in 2016, she would be finishing her political career as the first woman to be Vice President of the United States. That’s a BFD.

    You heard it here first.

    Disclaimer: I also predicted she would be the VP candidate in 2008, so my record as a prognosticator isn’t all that great.

  21. DTOzone

    Not from Mark Halpern

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/h…

    This is almost insulting

    Even if the White House believes the previous occupant had nothing to do with OBL’s ultimate demise, it would have been better for national unity and Obama’s own political fortunes if he had gone out of his way to thank 43. His invitation to Bush to join the event Thursday at Ground Zero (an offer declined) was the right idea, but belated.

    He should grovel at the feet of the guy who said catching bin Laden wasn’t important? For what?

    The “messaging war” is bullshit, who wins the messaging is decided by people like Halpern, not the White House or the GOP. He’s decided we’ve lost the message war before it even started.

  22. HappyinVT

    Martin – May 4, 2011 | 5:21 pm · Link

    @anthrosciguy: Actually:

    “I didn’t wait for that 3AM call. I placed it. Collect.”

     

  23. HappyinVT

    Dana J. Gould Twatted:

    “Bin Laden officially dead, the same week we learned Obama officially born. Weird …”

    h/t Odie Hugh Manatee

  24. Shaun Appleby

    She’s crafted an artful strategy appropriate to her qualifications:


    The Minnesota congresswoman is asking supporters to pray for her as she considers a White House bid, saying she wants God to give her and her husband “a special anointing on how to put our team together.”

    Juana Summers – Michele Bachmann: Pray for me Politico 4 May 11

    I guess the find-raising has been a bit lacklustre.  Maybe she ought to buy a lottery ticket.

  25. HappyinVT

    A trio of GOP senators over the course of the day today claimed to have seen a photo of the slain Osama bin Laden — even as the White House was announcing that it would not release any such photos. But now it appears that the senators — Scott Brown, Kelly Ayotte, and Saxby Chambliss, who is the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee — were duped by a fake bin Laden death photo. More soon …

    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

    Now I don’t feel so bad.

  26. Shaun Appleby

    No long form death photo but a death announcement:


    ABBOTABAD, Pakistan – Osama bin Laden’s young daughter has told Pakistani officials that she saw her father shot and killed by armed Americans when they raided a house here early Monday, an official with Pakistan’s spy agency said Tuesday.

    The official, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject, said the daughter, whom he described as being 12 or 13 years old, was one of eight or nine children in the house when a team of U.S. Navy SEALs stormed the complex by helicopter.

    “We have no independent confirmation of Osama bin Laden being there or dying there except what we got from the daughter,” said the official, a member of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency.

    The official said that based on interviews with the daughter and others in the house Pakistani authorities now believe that bin Laden had been living in the Abbottabad compound for “some months.”

    Saeed Shah – Bin Laden’s daughter saw U.S. troops kill him, official says McClatchy 3 May 11

    I mean, if you can’t believe the ISI who can you trust?

  27. HappyinVT

    Huckabee gave a speech to the National Rifle Association. He spoke of how, at Israel’s Holocaust museum, he looked over his 11-year-old daughter’s shoulder as she wrote in the guest book, “Why didn’t somebody do something?” Then he said, “We cannot afford to be a generation that leaves our children with nothing but a huge debt and the very erosion of the freedoms that our founders and our fathers died and gave us so valiantly. And that’s why I say, ‘Let there never be a time in this country where some father has to look over his daughter’s shoulder and see her ask this haunting question: Why didn’t somebody do something?'”

    Naturally, the ADL, which spends a great deal of time fighting those who would minimize or deny the full scope of the Holocaust, wasn’t happy. “It is highly inappropriate to use America’s mounting debt crisis as another occasion to invoke Nazis and the Holocaust, particularly on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day, a time dedicated to memorializing, not trivializing, the 6 million Jews and millions of others who perished at the hands of the Nazis,” said Foxman. http://www.thedailybeast.com/b…  

    To make matters worse Huckabee “attacked” Foxman after being called out.  Hint to Huckabee, don’t piss off teh Jews (particularly around Holocaust Remembrance Day).

  28. HappyinVT

    The Saudi Interior Ministry said today that a senior al Qaeda member on Riyadh’s most-wanted list named Khaled al-Qahtani called from abroad and turned himself in.

    “Interior Ministry’s spokesman Maj. Gen. Mansour Al-Turki said in a statement Wednesday that Khaled Hathal Abdullah al-Atifi al-Qahtani contacted the security authorities from an undisclosed country and expressed his wish to come home,” the Associated Press reports.

    “Al-Qahtani was reunited with his family and his surrender will be taken into consideration while looking into his case, Al-Turki said.”

    The Saudi Interior Ministry spokesman did not indicate when Khaled al-Qahtani gave himself up, but many members of the group’s Yemeni wing, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), have recently fled from Yemen, the AP writes. http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_…  

    Of course, this could be another case of getting “al Qaeda #3” for the umpteenth time but maybe this guy doesn’t want to fight for the cause anymore.

  30. spacemanspiff

    The only argument I’ve heard is that it must be done so conspiracy theories don’t take hold.

    When have we ever cared what conspiracy theorists think? Seriously.

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