Motley Moose – Archive

Cross posted at The Progressive Zionist

So today is the day for the Israelis. The elections are up and running and many wait to see the results.

The Polls are due to close at 10 PM Israel time (12 noon PST, 3 PM EST) and then results can start being reported. As of now, Turnout is looking to be at it’s highest point since 1999 with The Times of Israel projecting a possible 70% turnout was at 55% as of 4 PM Israel Time.

On social media and throughout the nation one thing I am hearing is that Likud-Betainu is NOT going to get the mandates they thought they were (Assaf called this one on Sunday). Haaretz is running a “liveblog”. Sources there are saying Likud-Betainu may get as few as 31 Mandates (down from 42 they currently hold though it is still way to early to tell)

According to Haaretz:

7.52 P.M. Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu officials are trading accusations, imputing the responsibility for the electoral failure of their joint ticket.

5:33 P.M.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tells Haaretz  that voter turnout in Likud strongholds in Israel are low, highlighting the growing fear within his party that it’s heading for collapse. As the evening wears on, Netanyahu is continuing his efforts to awaken Likud voters across the country.

5.27 P.M. Likud is concerned with low turnout at the party’s traditional bastions. “We’re lucky if we get 31 seats,” one party official said.

On some other interesting notes – Yesh Atid is claiming that polling from Channel 10 shows that they will be the # 2 Party in Israel. This is of course complete speculation but it does pose some interesting questions if true.

Other stories seem to be Arab Turnout which was around 10% in some places was starting to pick up and in Nazareth has hit 44%. The Arab parties are working hard to get out the vote and in an unusual move the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Michael Sabbah has urged Arab citizens to get out to vote.

Along with this turnout on the IDF bases are also high with 60% turnout (up 13% from 2009) with five hours to go.

What will happen here is anyone’s guess and depending on vote totals things could shift in the country dramatically.

A few days ago I wrote a diary based on possible coalitions… Now…. with what I am hearing. Who knows?

I will be posting updates throughout the day. I seriously hope our Israeli friends will come in and comment and share what they are hearing as well.

UPDATES

10:20 AM PT: From the Times of Israel: 20:12

The Twittersphere is awash with purported leaks from the TV exit polls which, based on initial small samples, ostensibly show why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is sounding worried.

The leaks purport to show the Likud doing less well than even the more pessimistic final polls, falling below the 30-seat mark, and Jewish Home and Yesh Atid competing to be the second biggest party with 16 or so seats each. The leaks still show a right-wing/Orthodox bloc managing to win more than 61 seats, but only just.

BELOW 30 SEATS… WHOA…. And where is Avodah and Livni (HaTanuah)

10:25 AM PT: From Haaretz:     8.08 P.M. Tzipi Livni says will pursue attempts to join forces with Labor and Yesh Atid.

8.06 P.M. Netanyahu calls on supporters: “The Likud government is in danger, go vote for us for the sake of the country’s future.”

From the Times of Israel:

21:03

A source close to the prime minister confirms that Benjamin Netanyahu is truly anxious about the initial exit poll projections, Channel 2 reports, dispelling the suspicion that Netanyahu’s Facebook post was a last-ditch plea to get out the vote.

Jewish Home leader Naftali Bennett writes on his Facebook page that according to the information his party has gathered thus far, Netanyahu will be the next prime minister. No surprises there. But “the big question is who will be his No. 2, Naftali Bennett, Shelly [Yachimovich], or [Yair] Lapid,” he writes

A government official is telling confidantes, meanwhile, that Yesh Atid is faring exceptionally well, closing in on as many as 20 seats.

From the U.S.: 11:28 AM PT: And from the U.S.:

9.21 P.M. The White House said that regardless of the results of the Israeli election, the U.S. approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would not change.

“We will continue to make clear that only through direct negotiations can the Palestinians and the Israelis … achieve the peace they both deserve,” said spokesman Jay Carney. He said the complexity of the conflict, not Obama’s relationship with the Israeli leader, was the main impediment.

FIRST PROJECTIONS ARE IN:

First projections (ch. 2): Likud 31, Yesh Atid 19, Labor 17, Shas 12, Jewish House 12, Meretz 7, Livni 7, United Torah Judaism 6, Arab parties (combined) 9 — ch, 2 calls it 61-59 for the right.

Hi Moose folks… I hope you all don’t mind an informative diary on the Israeli Elections. This is in no way meant to start any kind of “Pie Fight” and it is a non-advocacy diary.

As a disclaimer… I am an American Jewish Democratic Activist (some of you know me from Daily Kos) who does a fair amount of writing on Israel (and a rational approach to the Second Amendment). Personally, (though from an outsiders view), I support the Main Israeli Opposition parties of Labor (Avodah) and The Movement (HaTanuah), so some of that may seep through, though I will try to be as non-partisan as possible… So… Here goes:

First up the largest party and current coalition heads are Likud-Yisrael Betainu (Likud = “Coalition”, Yisrael Betainu = “Israel Our Home”). Currently this party (which just combined) holds 43 seats (out of 120) in the current government. Their leaders are PM Benyamin Netanyahu and Former Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman. Their orientation is Rightist. Economically they are very much Capitalist with similarities to the “Romney wing” of the Republican Party. During the Netanyahu administration, social services and other aspects of public life have suffered having been underfunded or auctioned off to private concerns. Last year’s “J14” social protests (which “Occupy” mirrored in many respects) came as a result of these policies.

On the foreign policy front, Likud-Betainu has no clear or coherent policy. The party just took a rightward lurch in their last primaries and YESHA (Settlement Authorities) Representatives gained while the moderate wing was “exorcised”. Some in Likud such as Netanyahu or Lieberman favor a modified Two State solution with Israel settling on borders that take up 50-60% of the West Bank, security zones in the Jordan River Valley and a concrete presence around Jerusalem and Hebron.

However, the Rightist wing of the party led by Moshe Feiglin and Danny Danon want nothing to do with that and are stressing that the only two State solution there is, is Israel from the Med to the Jordan, and the Palestinian State as Jordan itself.

Needless to say, the party refuses to actually articulate any kind of plan other than to blame everyone but themselves for any of Israel’s problems. Even so, even though they are not particularly well liked, they are seen by the Israeli Public as being strong on defense and a party that will keep Israel safe.

The party is polling as losing 6-8 seats from their 43. Still, they will most likely be the largest party in Israel and will have the first shot at forming the new government.

The second largest party is the Opposition Labor Party (Avodah). Their leader is ex-journalist and Social Activist Shelly Yachimovich. Labor once was THE major force in Israeli politics but since then has gone downhill due to a series of corrupt and frankly incompetent leaders. In the 2009 election, Labor got on 13 seats and then further splintered into two groups and currently only hold eight seats in the Knesset. Since, Yachimovich has come in though, Avodah is back up with a projected seat total of 16-20 seats.

Their economic policy is Socialist to Social Democratic in nature. They are heavily tied to the Unions and the Social Justice movement. Their orientation is to support European style movements. Yachimovich’s main achievements are mostly centered around women’s and workers issues and she has been very effective in this area.

Their big failures have been two-fold. First, they have no foreign policy to speak of. They pay lip service to dealing with the Occupation, and aside from some muttering about making a deal on the 1967 borders (with swaps) really don’t take much of a stand on this issue (or haven’t until very, very recently). It should also be noted that when the time came, Yachimovich voted to maintain the settlement budget, though she says she would cut it at this point.

Their second problem is that they can’t seem to decide who they really are. They keep running away from the “Leftist” tag and call themselves “moderates”, and have really tried to distance themselves from what they call “Leftist” movements. They are trying in effect to re-brand as a Centrist Party.

Next up we have what I consider to be a truly dangerous player Habayit HaYehudi (Jewish Home). This party led by ex-Special Forces Major Naftali Bennett is a combination of the old National Religious Party (re-branded to Jewish Home) and virulent Rightist party National Union. Currently they hold 5 seats in the Knesset (they lost two to the Fascist/Kahanist Otzma Yisrael (Strong Israel) party. They are projected to emerge from this as the third largest party in the Knesset with anywhere from 13-17 seats.

Their economics are a populist mix of social capitalism with a healthy dose of religious nationalism. BUT, what they are running on is a message that they want to join in a Likud government to make sure that it indeed moves to the Hard Right.

Their foreign policy dominates their platform. In simple terms, they simply want make the Occupation permanent. They propose the following situation. They want to take 61% of the West Bank (where 100% of the Jews and 4% of the Palestinians live) and formally annex it to Israel. They would offer the Palestinians there full rights as Israeli Citizens (Bennett claims it would be 50,000 – 100,000 Palestinians). He then wants to take the rest of the West Bank and turn it into an Autonomous Palestinian area. The people in this area would have their own elected leaders, and state authorities but would still have to answer to Israel in all issues. The people in the autonomous areas would have no votes or rights as Israeli citizens.

Further their areas Bennett proposes that their areas would be connected through a series of modern high speed roads that would be only open to the Palestinians and Israeli Defense Forces (this paid for by Israel). Where he would get the money to pay for this… he does not say. BUT, this is his goal.

Rather than go any more partisan here because as I write about this, I realize how extremely stupid this plan is… I will leave it to you… dear readers to comment.

If you all would like, I can add perspectives on the next four parties: Shas (a Sephardic Religious Party led by Ariyeh Deri expected to capture 10-12 seats), Yesh Atid (A Secular Centrist party led by T.V. Personality expected to capture 8-12 seats), HaTanuah (A secular Centrist party led by former Foreign Minister and Kadima head Tzipi Livni expected to capture 8-12 seats) and United Torah Judaism (a religious Ashkenazi Party expected to take 5 to 6 seats).

Please let me know.

As a personal note, I look forward to participating at the Moose and with (what I can see) the eminently reasonable folks here.