Motley Moose – Archive

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D) has the following data to report for the race for Arizona’s 10 electoral votes:

Likely voters

McCain 44

Obama 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain 46

Obama 47

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

CNN is reporting that the famously undisciplined campaign of John McCain, someone who during the course of the campaign frequently has been described as erratic, has lost control of Sarah Palin.  McCain aides apparently consider her to be a “rogue” vice presidential candidate.

McCain campaign aides cite several instances where Palin has criticized the campaign and gone off message.  The story notes that a McCain aides complains that “she appears to be looking out for herself more than the McCain campaign.”  This aide said:

She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.  Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.

Great.  First, the Republican Party thrusts upon the United States a pathological gambler in the person of its presidential nominee, and then he selects for vice president a woman he cannot trust.  Andrew Sullivan asks:

If McCain doesn’t trust her, why should anyone else?

All I can say is this: Barack Obama for president.

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52

McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were 52-45, so today’s poll represents a one point gain in Obama’s margin over McCain.  Rasmussen observes:

This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch. A week ago today, Obama was up by five. Two weeks ago, he was up by seven

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe had one of his periodic talks with reporters about his assessment of the state of the race.  Halperin reports that Plouffe believes McCain’s challenges in Pennsylvania are daunting:

The Obama camp manager says McCain would have to win 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican and 60% of the independent vote to take the battleground.

Gallup is looking at early voting trends.  It currently estimates that 11 percent of registered voters have voted.  They anticipate that 19% of registered voters will have voted early by the time early voting concludes. Currently, 69% of registered voters intend to cast a ballot; were that to happen, this election would have unprecedented turnout.

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Obama continues to enjoy a comfortable lead in this morning’s tracking polls.

Barack Obama stopped in Indiana today on his way to Hawaii to be with his ailing grandmother.  There were 35,000 Hoosiers who came out to see him.

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 52

McCain 45

The numbers yesterday and the day before were, 51-45.

Rasmussen observes:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

Obama Leads All Midwestern States says the Big Ten Battleground Poll:

Illinois

Obama 61

McCain 32

Indiana

Obama 51

McCain 41

Iowa

Obama 52

McCain 39

Ohio

Obama 53

McCain 41

Michigan

Obama 58

McCain 36

Minnesota

Obama 57

McCain 38

Pennsylvania

Obama 52

McCain 41

Wisconsin

Obama 53

McCain 40

National Lead

Obama 52

McCain 42

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Zogby says that Obama has a 22 percent lead among early voters.  Gallup is tracking the number of people who already have voted, and he says 10 percent of all registered voters already have voted.

In the past three elections, the percentages of voters who voted are these:

1996 58.4% of registered voters went to the polls

2000 59.5% of registered voters went to the polls

2004 63.8% of registered voters went to the polls

My guess is that we will remain at least even with 2004, but the historic nature of this election may bring out a still greater percentage of voters.  If we assume that we will see the same rate of increase in 2008 over 2004 that we saw in 2004 over 2000, about 68.4% of registered voters will go the polls in 2008.  These assumptions would suggest that somewhere between 14.6% and 15.7% of the electorate that will cast ballots already has voted.  

If Zogby is correct about Obama’s 22-point margin in early voting, it means he must have something like 61% of the early vote compared to 39% of McCain’s early vote.  These assumptions, and they are wild guesses, would indicate that Obama is wracking up totals in early voting that will allow his margin a lot of comfort for tightening in the national polls as we approach election day, should that occur.