(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)
In the past three elections, the percentages of voters who voted are these:
1996 58.4% of registered voters went to the polls
2000 59.5% of registered voters went to the polls
2004 63.8% of registered voters went to the polls
My guess is that we will remain at least even with 2004, but the historic nature of this election may bring out a still greater percentage of voters. If we assume that we will see the same rate of increase in 2008 over 2004 that we saw in 2004 over 2000, about 68.4% of registered voters will go the polls in 2008. These assumptions would suggest that somewhere between 14.6% and 15.7% of the electorate that will cast ballots already has voted.
If Zogby is correct about Obama’s 22-point margin in early voting, it means he must have something like 61% of the early vote compared to 39% of McCain’s early vote. These assumptions, and they are wild guesses, would indicate that Obama is wracking up totals in early voting that will allow his margin a lot of comfort for tightening in the national polls as we approach election day, should that occur.