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GOP Beauty Contests: Open Thread

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The Republican primary continues to lurch forward with three contests today; Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.  None of these are binding in the allocation of delegates:


It is not a pretty image, believe you me.

Now, as the latest chapter in this drama, the Republican National Committee felt obliged to send out an e-mail reminding reporters that today’s voting in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota will mean sweet fk-all, despite what you may hear from John King and my man Chuck Todd.

Charles P Pierce – The RNC Clusterfk Esquire 7 Feb 12

Notwithstanding, there may be something at stake here for the Romney campaign which lit up recently with an unusual objection to the methodology of a specific poll, largely on the grounds of this little nugget:


According to ABC’s poll out this morning, by a 2 to 1 margin voters say the more they learn about Mitt Romney, the less they like him.

Josh Marshall – Taking a Toll TPM 6 Feb 12

Romney’s favourability is declining nationally as Obama’s enjoys a modest rise.  Not to mention that with Santorum leading in Missouri and competitive elsewhere the Romney juggernaut just might lose two out of three; a concern further evident by their pivot to attacking Santorum in recent days.

So, as far as delegates are concerned these events don’t amount to much but as a potential deflation of the Romney campaign with an upset or two it may be worth watching.


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/ 69 Comments

69 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    Just in:


    (Reuters) – Despite his strong showing in early state contests in the race for the Republican U.S. presidential nomination, Mitt Romney’s support nationwide has dipped slightly during the past month, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday.

    Patricia Zengerle – Romney’s lead dips despite wins: poll Reuters 7 Feb 12

    The poor guy, no matter how much he panders or says what they tell him to say he just can’t get anyone to actually like him.  Reading Red State lately is like attending a Methodist wake.

  2. Shaun Appleby

    Shows Santorum leading in Missouri and Minnesota:


    The surveys by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling show Santorum possibly headed for a victory tonight in Missouri, where he leads Mitt Romney, 45% to 32%. The former Pennsylvania senator is also leading Romney in Minnesota, 33% to 24%.

    Catalina Camia – Polls: Santorum poised for ‘big day’ in GOP contests USA Today 7 Feb 12

    Looks like “inevitability” ain’t what it’s cracked up to be.  It’s two weeks to the next contest which will give Romney little opportunity to change the narrative, such as it is, should he lose these.  And given past performance Romney’s campaign will feel obliged to dump heavily on Santorum, continuing to suffer the presumed consequences of negative campaigning and perhaps giving Gingrich some breathing space; it’s shaping up to be like tag-team wrestling.

  3. Shaun Appleby

    They’ve called Missouri for Santorum with 54%.  A two to one advantage over Romney.  Santorum has a very credible lead in Minnesota, also in majority territory and now he’s leading in Colorado, with 6% of precincts reporting.

    We will be watching Colorado with great interest, if Santorum squeaks out a win there Romney’s got some ‘splainin to do.

  4. Shaun Appleby

    That’s Minnesota in the bag for Santorum.  And convincingly.  Romney did something since Florida to sabotage his own campaign with Republicans; what was it?  He better stop doing it, whatever it is.

  5. Shaun Appleby

    Santorum’s victory speech is a forced call and response full of conservative Obama-bashing and red meat and will probably scare independents.  His South Carolina effort was much, much better.  His blue collar pitch is effective but this carnival barking is just lame.  At least so far.

  7. Strummerson

    When are these jackweeds going to stop guffawing at their own cleverness every time one of them takes a swipe at the Pres. for using the same piece of standard equipment that they all do?  Are they going to mock him for wearing a suit as well?  

    “That Obama…such a wimp…couldn’t stand up without those legs he uses all the time!!!  Shouldn’t we have a President who can breathe without relying on oxygen?”

  8. HappyinVT

    what does tonight do for Santorum’s chances of being the VP candidate?

    (Erickson called Romney “inauthentic” on CNN.  Ya think?!)

  9. HappyinVT

    Which puts him at about 35% of the total vote this year which would make it close.  However, given that turnout is higher in areas where Romney did not do well in 2008 he may be under that 35% which means he could lose CO to Santorum.

    And I have to say I am flabbergasted that Santorum won any states, non-binding or otherwise.

  10. HappyinVT

    Larry Sabato @LarrySabato

    Why is turnout down so dramatically in CO from ’08? Is it mainly the leftover snow? Or the leftover candidates?

  11. Shaun Appleby

    Romney winning with 39% at the moment but Denver County is all in.  Jefferson County is the only firewall he’s got and the rural map is still largely blank.  This is getting very interesting.

  12. Shaun Appleby

    Ho boy, dark misgivings in the Romney camp and all across the Republican establishment.  Romney is trailing blood in the water and it is hard to see how it stops.

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