This is the first of a weekly series of diaries covering the Republican Presidential Primaries or “Who’s Going to be Wiped Out by Pres. Obama in 2012”. First up is discussion of who, and more importantly, who is not going to file and run.The candidate must file with the FEC in order to be considered a bonafide runner.
For the sake of establishing an historical baseline, below is the list of candidates and decliners for 1996. This roughly reflects 2012: A Democratic President running for reelection, a Democratic Senate, a Republican House via a decisive midterm resurgence. The tally was 11 bonafide candidates and 21 declinees.
| Candidate | Declined to run | |
|---|---|---|
| Bob Dole | Howard Baker | John McCain |
| Pat Buchanan | James Baker | Oliver North |
| Steve Forbes | William Bennett | Colin Powell |
| Robert K. Dornan | George W. Bush | Donald Rumsfeld |
| Lamar Alexander | Carroll Campbell | John McKernan |
| Phil Gramm | Dick Cheney | Dan Quayle |
| Richard Lugar | Pete DuPont | Fife Symington III |
| Arlen Specter | John Engler | Tommy Thompson |
| Pete Wilson | Newt Gingrich | William Weld |
| Morry Taylor | Thomas Kean | Christine Todd |
| Alan Keyes | Lynn Morley Martin | |
And without further ado, the 2012 roster of Bozos:
| Exporatory Committee | Prospective | Declined to run |
|---|---|---|
| Herman Cain | Michele Bachmann | Sharron Angle |
| Newt Gingrich | Haley Barbour | Scott Brown |
| Roy Moore | John R. Bolton | Jeb Bush |
| Ron Paul | Mitch Daniels | Chris Christie |
| Tim Pawlenty | Rudy Giuliani | Bob Corker |
| Buddy Roemer | Mike Huckabee | Jim DeMint |
| Mitt Romney | Jon Huntsman | Bobby Jindal |
| Rick Santorum | Gary E. Johnson | Bob McDonnell |
| Sarah Palin | Mike Pence | |
| George Pataki | Rick Perry | |
| Rand Paul | Gen. David Petraeus | |
| Donald Trump | Marco Rubio | |
| Paul Ryan | ||
| John Thune | ||
| Allen West |
Next week, MM experts will be able to choose their 1st, 2nd and dark horse pick if there is a brokered convention.
The week after, we will have previews of the first debate per the tentative schedule below:
May 5, 2011 – A South Carolina debate, hosted by the South Carolina Republican Party.
June 7, 2011 – A New Hampshire debate, hosted by CNN, WMUR-TV and the New Hampshire Union Leader.
August 11, 2011 – An Iowa debate, hosted by the Iowa Republican Party and FOX News.
September 14, 2011 – A national debate, hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, NBC and Politico.
Each week following will be on a single topic plus open threads for fresh news, rumors and smears.
The hottest topic this week is The Donald. The NYT had “If Trump Runs in ’12, ‘Apprentice’ Is in Limbo” that seems to cast doubts on his intentions to run.
Many political commentators have dismissed Mr. Trump’s chances and have chalked up recent favorable poll results mainly to name recognition – and to his aggressive insistence that he doubts President Obama’s eligibility to be president. Still, doubts of another kind persist.
“Anyone assuming that the reality show host’s interest in running for president is just another one of his publicity stunts would not likely be wrong,” wrote Charlie Cook, the political analyst, who in a column last week wondered whether a “Jersey Shore” cast member would try to run for president next.
He didn’t help himself with his Palinesque interview conducted by Savannah Guthrie on NBC. Personally, I think it’s just the Art of the Deal for him to negotiate a better contract with NBC.
But what do I know? The floor is yours.
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