Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Republican Presidential Primaries

This is the first of a weekly series of diaries covering the Republican Presidential Primaries or “Who’s Going to be Wiped Out by Pres. Obama in 2012”. First up is discussion of who, and more importantly, who is not going to file and run.The candidate must file with the FEC in order to be considered a bonafide runner.

For the sake of establishing an historical baseline, below is the list of candidates and decliners for 1996. This roughly reflects 2012: A Democratic President running for reelection, a Democratic Senate, a Republican House via a decisive midterm resurgence. The tally was 11 bonafide candidates and 21 declinees.

1996 Republican Presidential Primary
Candidate Declined to run
Bob Dole Howard Baker John McCain
Pat Buchanan James Baker Oliver North
Steve Forbes William Bennett Colin Powell
Robert K. Dornan George W. Bush Donald Rumsfeld
Lamar Alexander Carroll Campbell John McKernan
Phil Gramm Dick Cheney Dan Quayle
Richard Lugar Pete DuPont Fife Symington III
Arlen Specter John Engler Tommy Thompson
Pete Wilson Newt Gingrich William Weld
Morry Taylor Thomas Kean Christine Todd
Alan Keyes Lynn Morley Martin  

And without further ado, the 2012 roster of Bozos:

2012 Republican Presidential Primary
Exporatory Committee Prospective Declined to run
Herman Cain Michele Bachmann Sharron Angle
Newt Gingrich Haley Barbour Scott Brown
Roy Moore John R. Bolton Jeb Bush
Ron Paul Mitch Daniels Chris Christie
Tim Pawlenty Rudy Giuliani Bob Corker
Buddy Roemer Mike Huckabee Jim DeMint
Mitt Romney Jon Huntsman Bobby Jindal
Rick Santorum Gary E. Johnson Bob McDonnell
  Sarah Palin Mike Pence
  George Pataki Rick Perry
  Rand Paul Gen. David Petraeus
  Donald Trump Marco Rubio
    Paul Ryan
    John Thune
    Allen West

Next week, MM experts will be able to choose their 1st, 2nd and dark horse pick if there is a brokered convention.

The week after, we will have previews of the first debate per the tentative schedule below:

   May 5, 2011 – A South Carolina debate, hosted by the South Carolina Republican Party.

   June 7, 2011 – A New Hampshire debate, hosted by CNN, WMUR-TV and the New Hampshire Union Leader.

   August 11, 2011 – An Iowa debate, hosted by the Iowa Republican Party and FOX News.

   September 14, 2011 – A national debate, hosted by the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, NBC and Politico.

Each week following will be on a single topic plus open threads for fresh news, rumors and smears.

The hottest topic this week is The Donald. The NYT had “If Trump Runs in ’12, ‘Apprentice’ Is in Limbo” that seems to cast doubts on his intentions to run.

Many political commentators have dismissed Mr. Trump’s chances and have chalked up recent favorable poll results mainly to name recognition – and to his aggressive insistence that he doubts President Obama’s eligibility to be president. Still, doubts of another kind persist.

“Anyone assuming that the reality show host’s interest in running for president is just another one of his publicity stunts would not likely be wrong,” wrote Charlie Cook, the political analyst, who in a column last week wondered whether a “Jersey Shore” cast member would try to run for president next.

He didn’t help himself with his Palinesque interview conducted by Savannah Guthrie on NBC. Personally, I think it’s just the Art of the Deal for him to negotiate a better contract with NBC.

But what do I know? The floor is yours.

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  1. virginislandsguy

    is NM former Gov. Gary E. Johnson fight it out with the Paul father/son duo for the crown of the Libertarian Wing of the Party. This is a guy to keep your eye on.

  2. jsfox

    I think we are getting a bit cocky re the Republicans.

    1) The Republicans will get behind any eventual nominee. Not because they like him or her, but because they dislike Obama so much.

    2) Given the above fact it is the Independents that we need to worry about. Face it the election were held today Obama would not get enough of their vote to win. Can you say gas prices. The one thing Obama certainly has no control over.

    3) So all it will take is the Republicans to nominate by hook or by crook some reasonably reasonable candidate for Obama to lose if gas is still high and economy is still sputtering along.

    4) And the one candidate I would keep my eye on is Jon Huntsman. Huntsman could be a real threat if he can get through the nomination process. And I would not be at all surprised if the Republican power  brokers are strategizing on just how to make that happen for him or some very much like him.

    I fear this election is not going to be the cake walk that many are predicting because of the loony filed . . . so far.

  3. virginislandsguy

    Ron Paul via CBS News:

    Libertarian-leaning Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul has formed a so-called “testing the waters” fundraising account ahead of a possible 2012 presidential run, Paul aide Jesse Benton confirmed to CBS News.

    According to Benton, Paul “is close to making a final decision and it is better than 50-50 that he will enter the race in May.”

    My hunch on this is that with former NM Gov. Gary E. Johnson very likely running and threatening the Paul Family Libertarian gravytrain, Ron will run. This buys time for Rand to build some experience and cred (well, for them) to make his first run in ’16.

    Ron Paul will run.

    Gary E. Johnson will run

    Rand Paul will not run

  4. virginislandsguy
    Herman Cain In    but who cares
    Newt Gingrich In    VP slot or brokered P, watch him kiss ass of likely nominee
    Roy Moore In    but who cares
    Ron Paul In    defending Libertarian gravy train against Johnson
    Tim Pawlenty In    VP or brokered P, still young enough for ’16 or even ’20
    Buddy Roemer In    but who cares
    Mitt Romney In    last chance at P, Huntsman will spar, Huckabee will slam from sidelines
    Rick Santorum In    VP, wingnut welfare and to show he is still politically relevant
    Michele Bachmann In    VP and to inherit Palins following
    Haley Barbour Out    Just declared he was definitely out
    John R. Bolton Out    Wanted publicity for foreign affairs and foundation work
    Mitch Daniels In    now that Barbour is out, VP or brokered P
    Rudy Giuliani Out    no money
    Mike Huckabee Out    making big bucks for first time, eye on ’16 or VP
    Jon Huntsman In    cred for ’16 or VP slot, watch him spar with Romney
    Gary E. Johnson In    cage-match with Pauls for Libertarian-Repub crown
    Sarah Palin Out    wingnut welfare is way more lucrative, star rapidly fading
    George Pataki Out    will be 67 in ’12, on nobodies radar screen
    Rand Paul Out    father will run to pave way for Rand, just like Kim Jong-il
    Donald Trump Out    public scrutiny is showing him to be a ‘joke candidate’

    That makes 12 candidates in ’12 compared to 11 in 1996. Sounds about right.

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