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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Archive for March 2009

GOP "Budget" Discussion Thread

Today, House Republicans submitted their counterproposal to the Federal budget for FY 2010. It is a whopping 19-pages in length, full of fiscally responsible unicorns and market-driven rainbows, and was apparently created by an intern with a beginner’s experience with using Microsoft Visio. Here’s a handy graph describing the sort of helpful information contained in this proposal:

What do YOU think about the GOP proposal?

UPDATE: Here is the PDF of the “proposal”, for your entertainment

Oh Contessa!

Somebody was really pissed off today!

Damn! Get mad more Ms Brewer. You rock.

You rock as well Mr Gibbs.

Who did Israel(?)/US(?) attack? Sudan(?)/Iran(?)/Hamas(?)

(cross posted at kickin it with cg)

Several outlets are reporting that Sudanese officials said foreign warplanes launched two separate airstrikes in January on Sudan near its border with Egypt, targeting convoys packed with light weapons and African migrants trying to sneak across the frontier. However who was behind the strikes remains a mystery, since conflicting reports are suggesting that it was both Israel and the US.

Mubarak Mabrook Saleem, Sudan’s State Minister for Transportation, said he believed American planes were behind the bombings about a week apart in early February and claimed hundreds were killed. A Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed his account but said there were discrepancies on casualties. The U.S. denied any airstrike on Sudan.

But even stranger following the highways minister’s statements, even further conflicting reports have emerged from within Sudan. Namely, according to Al Jazeera English, the Sudanese foreign minister Deng Alor said Wednesday, “we have no information about such an attack.”

Moreoever, the Al Jazeera report mentions claims of two bombings — the original January incident plus one in February as well. From Al Jazeera English:

Mabrouk Mubarak Salim, the state minister for highways, said on Thursday that Sudanese, Somalis, Ethiopians, and Eritreans were killed in the attacks in January and February.

CBS said that the jets were targeting weapons convoys heading through Sudan on their way to Egypt, where they would have been taken across the Sinai into the Gaza Strip.

“Sudan used to provide Hamas with weapons but that is not the case any more,” Alor said.

Salim said that the air raids hit human traffickers travelling through the desert area and the only weapons in the convoys were small arms being carried by guards.

But it gets even more bizarre – who was the intended target of the air strikes?

As CBS reports:

CBS News national security correspondent David Martin has been told that Israeli aircraft carried out the attack. Israeli intelligence is said to have discovered that weapons were being trucked through Sudan, heading north toward Egypt, whereupon they would cross the Sinai Desert and be smuggled into Hamas-held territory in Gaza.

In January, the U.S. signed an agreement with Israel that calls for an international effort to stop arms smuggling into Gaza. Hamas was showering rockets on Israeli towns, and Israel had responded by invading Gaza. More than 1,000 Palestinians were reportedly killed in the December-January war, and 13 Israelis lost their lives.

Sudan is known to be a way station for weapons smuggled into Gaza via a vast network of tunnels under the strip’s border with Egypt. The route begins in Iran, which supports the Hamas in Gaza. It is said to pass through Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and Egypt – going from the Persian Gulf around the Arabian Peninsula to the city of Port Sudan on the Red Sea, some 400 kilometres south of Egypt.

So he intended target was Hamas right?  Not so fast.

However, the involvement of Sudan in the Iranian-Hamas war effort would fit with the larger pattern of Sudan’s regional alliances and activity. The close connections between Teheran, Khartoum and Hamas are a matter of public record.

The regime of Brigadier Omar al-Bashir in Sudan is, with the exception of the Hamas enclave in Gaza, the only overtly Islamist and pro-Iranian government in the Arabic-speaking world. Sudan is an acknowledged member of the Iran-led regional alliance, which includes Syria, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Sudan has maintained close relations with Iran since the 1989 coup which brought Omar al-Bashir to power. Bashir’s coup was carried out in co-operation with the Islamist National Islamic Front. Members of the front went on to hold key positions in the new regime. Iranian supplies of weapons and oil began soon after. Hassan al-Turabi, a Muslim Brotherhood associated Sudanese Islamist activist, was the key figure in building the Iran-Sudan link in the early days of the regime.

The last time Israel took responsibility for carrying out a secret activity on Sudanese soil was when it airlifted Ethiopian Jews from Sudan in Operations Moses and Joshua in 1984 and 1985.

With such a completely convoluted and confusing geopolitical saga – is it any wonder that there is so much difficulty starting something as simple as peace talks?

Iran to attend US-backed Afghan conference, seeks regional solution

Andrea Mitchel just announced that Iran will participate in next week’s conference on Afghanistan in the Hague. I believe this is a first for Iran to work this openly and cooperatively with the United States.  

Perhaps I am overreacting, but I think this is an amazing and huge step forward to dealing with Afghanistan. We must work with Iran to develop an effective strategy in Western Asia.

From The Boston Globe today.

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran said on Thursday it would attend a U.N. conference on the future of Afghanistan which was proposed by Tehran’s old foe the United States and called for a regional solution to the “crisis.”

But Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi said Iran had yet to decide who to send to next Tuesday’s international meeting in The Hague, which will be attended by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and delegates from more than 80 countries.

News of Iran’s participation is likely to be welcomed by the new U.S. administration of President Barack Obama, who has offered a “new beginning” of diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic on a range of issues.

Clinton earlier this month said Iran would be invited to the meeting on Afghanistan, which battles a growing Islamist Taliban insurgency, in a U.S. overture which recognizes the Shi’ite Muslim power’s influence in its troubled neighbor.

Iran and the United States have not had diplomatic ties for three decades and are now at odds over Tehran’s nuclear work.

But analysts say they share an interest in ensuring a stable Afghanistan, where violence is at its highest level since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion.

“Iran will participate,” Qashqavi said. “The level of participation is not clear.”

Clinton is expected to provide details of a review of U.S. strategy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is set to be released before the conference in the Dutch city.

AFGHANISTAN “CRISIS”

Iran says the United States is failing in Afghanistan but that Tehran is ready to help its eastern neighbor.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was quoted as saying a regional solution was needed.

Obama last month ordered the deployment of 17,000 extra U.S. troops to the country. Iran has often called for U.S. forces to leave the region, saying they are making the situation worse.

But both Tehran and Washington oppose the hardline Sunni Taliban and al Qaeda, back Afghan President Hamid Karzai and want stability, reconstruction and an end to drug trafficking.

“We believe that a regional solution should be found for the Afghanistan crisis,” the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted Mottaki as saying during a visit to Brazil.

“Iran’s goal in the region is to help peace, stability and calm which is necessary for the region’s progress,” he said.

Qashqavi said Iran would also attend a separate meeting on Afghanistan in Moscow this week.

In a major shift from the policies of his predecessor George W. Bush, who sought to isolate Tehran over nuclear work the West suspects is aimed at making bombs, Obama has offered to extend a hand of peace to Iran if “it unclenches its fist.”

Last week, in a televised address released to Middle East broadcasters, Obama made his warmest offer yet of a fresh start in relations with Iran.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Saturday he had so far seen no change in U.S. behavior but Tehran would respond to any real policy shift by Washington. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful power purposes.

In other areas, the United States accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism in the Middle East and of backing and arming Shi’ite militias in Iraq, charges Iran dismisses. But they also share an interest in Iraq’s stability and territorial integrity.

(Editing by Samia Nakhoul)

Global Banking – Regulator Envy.

(cross posted at kickin it with cg)

Amid a global economic meltdown – Canada – with its highly regulated banking system has become the envy of the world.  In a survey by the World Economic Forum in October, with the financial crisis and bank failures that have shaken world markets – Canada was voted to have to world’s soundest banking system followed by Sweden, Luxembourg and Australia.

Britain, which once ranked in the top five, has slipped to 44th place behind El Salvador and Peru, after a 50 billion pound ($86.5 billion) pledge this week by the government to bolster bank balance sheets.  The United States, where some of Wall Street’s biggest financial names have collapsed in the fall, rated only 40, just behind Germany at 39, and smaller states such as Barbados, Estonia and even Namibia, in southern Africa.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report based its findings on opinions of executives, and handed banks a score between 1.0 (insolvent and possibly requiring a government bailout) and 7.0 (healthy, with sound balance sheets).  Canadian banks received 6.8, just ahead of Sweden (6.7), Luxembourg (6.7), Australia (6.7) and Denmark (6.7).  UK banks collectively scored 6.0, narrowly behind the United States, Germany and Botswana, all with 6.1. France, in 19th place, scored 6.5 for soundness, while Switzerland’s banking system scored the same in 16th place, as did Singapore (13th).

The Globe and Mail’s Report on Business created a neat little chart that summarizes how some banks around the world are doing:  

Canada

Ranked tops in the world by the World Economic Forum for soundness of banks. Canada’s big five lenders all reported healthy profits in their most recent quarter, generally beating analysts’ expectations. Tightly regulated, with cash-spewing retail banks that can offset losses in other areas of the business.

United States

There are 252 problem banks being tracked by the government’s bank insurance program. In 2008, 25 banks failed, including household names like Washington Mutual. The government has rolled out numerous programs and spent at least $1-trillion (U.S.) in a bid to prop up the financial system, but there are no sure signs that the bailouts are working. The Federal Deposit Insurance Co. is now on track to seize 100 failed banks in 2009.

Brazil

The big economies in South America have had little trouble with bank failures resulting from stumbles on risky assets such as subprime mortgages. Still, they won’t be immune to rising defaults from slowing economies, which will be a test of how far financial regulation and bank management have come in recent years.  

Iceland

The banking system of this tiny island nation — which boasts a population half the size of Winnipeg — represents probably the most spectacular rise and fall of the global financial meltdown. In 2003, Iceland’s three main banks had just a few billion dollars of assets, but by 2006 this hit $140-billion (U.S.). Today, all three have failed and been nationalized in a bailout that’s cost about $330,000 per citizen, leading to the collapse of the country’s currency and economy.  

Sweden

Sweden faced a banking crisis in the 1990s, and was forced to remake its financial sector. This time around, while one bank has failed because of toxic assets, the country has mostly dodged the problems and Sweden’s banking sector was ranked second only to Canada’s for stability by the World Economic Forum. Exposure at some big banks to Eastern Europe could lead to loan losses.

Britain

The British government has been forced to bail out big lenders such as Lloyds Banking Group, Northern Rock Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland, which have been crippled by forays into risky mortgage products before the property market in the UK and in the U.S. fell apart.

Switzerland

The country’s reputation as the home of the quiet, prudent banker is in shambles after gambles by Swiss giants UBS AG and Credit Suisse led to massive losses totalling more than $65-billion (U.S.). The government is now looking to write new rules to keep the financial sector out of trouble.

Austria

Austria has historically been the bridge between Western Europe and Eastern Europe. In recent years some of its largest lenders focused on expansion in such countries as Czech Republic, Romania and the Ukraine. Lending to the Central and Eastern European region amounts to almost 70 per cent of Austria’s gross domestic product, according to Moody’s. That was great when those countries were booming, but Eastern Europe is hurting badly and now many loans are likely to go bad.

Spain

Spain’s banking system has held up better than most with banks reporting gains in profit in large part because of strict regulatation when it comes to high risk assets, a legacy of a banking crisis in the 1970s. As a result, big Spanish banks like Banco Santander focus mostly on low-risk retail banking. Still, there are signs it may not last. The country’s swooning property market could lead to loan defaults, and the government and some bank executives warn that the domestic banking sector may have to be restructured should the global financial crisis deepen.

Namibia

Namibia has the highest-ranked banking system in Africa for stability, well ahead of Spain, the U.S. and Britain. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s banks entered the financial crisis very profitable and well capitalized. And while the country is being buffeted by the global troubles, the resource-based economy is still expected to grow 1 per cent this year, according to Namibia’s central bank.

Russia

The Russian government has already invested about $11-billion to try to aid banks, and is looking at another $55-billion stimulus package to restart the economy and support the country’s ailing banking system. Lenders are suffering from a fast downturn in the oil-powered economy of Russia.  

China

China’s big banks have avoided troubles with subprime and other toxic assets, and may benefit as the government unveils a big stimulus package designed to keep the country’s economy growing quickly. If that doesn’t work, though, expect the banks to face bigger loan losses.

Japan

Japan’s response to the banking bust of the 1990s was a ‘What not to do’ lesson. The country put off dealing with bad loans and propped up bad banks for too long. Just as the country finally started to take big steps to fix the problem, this financial crisis cropped up. So far, Japanese banks have avoided the worst of it, signalling perhaps they’ve learned from experience.  

Australia

Ranked fourth by the World Economic Forum for soundness of banks, Australia’s system shares many attributes with Canada’s. It’s centralized, with a few big players that are making money. The big problem for Australia is an economic one: its banks may not be big enough to take up the slack as global lenders cut back on lending, leaving the country’s borrowers in the lurch.  

Maybe government regulation is the way to go – don’t you think?

Open Thread and Tuesday Tubes ~ March 24, 2009

Have I ever mentioned that I really hate Democrats? Democrats in Congress, that is. I despise Republicans too- there are days I wanna get rid of the whole bunch of ’em.

Tuesday March 24, 2009 in 100 screaming seconds.

When Glenn Beck is pointing out that we are out of control, you know it is bad.

Ciudad Juarez

Lately I’ve been following a certain something very closely: the drug war. Ciudad Juarez, Mexico has become one of the deadliest cities in Mexico as the result of drug cartels fighting over territory and fighting with police enforcement. It’s a crazy issue for me because its literally happening at my doorstep [I’ve spent most of my life in El Paso,TX; 5 minutes away from Mexico].

As of today, the violence has let up a bit. But the first 2 months of 2009 were something to really take your breath away. More than a death a day and the acts of violence became more and more barbaric. There were 200 deaths in February alone in Ciudad Juarez.