Obama is certain to carry New Mexico, Iowa, and Colorado. If he holds Pennsylvania and the other Kerry 2004 states, he is the president. He can lose Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.
McCain’s only path to victory lies through Pennsylvania and he has been behind in nearly every poll since June. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter (R) basically said yesterday that McCain’s only hope was the Bradley Effect (that white voters were lying to pollsters about voting for Obama, thus inflating his numbers). In addition, McCain would have to hold Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. He’s been behind in most of the public polls in Virginia since September and he’s been falling behind in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.
If McCain wins Pennsylvania, Obama need only carry Ohio or Florida to make up the difference. Obama currently leads McCain in Ohio and Florida.
My prediction is Obama 318 to McCain 220. I think that McCain wins Ohio and North Carolina, but loses Florida and Virginia to Obama. North Carolina”s demographics aren’t changing fast enough and Ohio’s aren’t changing at all. The polls are close enough that the late deciders (whom I believe will mostly go to McCain) will push McCain over the top in those two states. Florida and Virginia, on the other hand, are ripe for change. Obama also picks up Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa.
I think that Proposition 8 in California (a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage) will go down in defeat, but a similar amendment in Florida, Proposition 2, will pass. I think that the Florida voters drawn to the polls by Gov. Palin were already very likely to vote for Proposition 2, but I think that the voters drawn to the polls by Obama are more likely to check his name and skip the rest of the ballot. Because of Hollywood and the fact that gay marriage had already been legalized, the California initiative got the money and the attention.
I don’t think Democrats will win 60 Senate seats–and I think that’s a good thing. There are people on the left literally frothing at the mouth at the idea of the unlimited power 60 seats would bring. That makes me very nervous. Congress would either overreach or (more likely) there would be infighting with the majority. That would make Democrats look stupid. Forcing Senate Democrats to reach 60 votes with at least a few Republicans removes the possibility of governing hastily and gives them an excuse to move cautiously and responsibly.
And frankly, if Harry Reid can’t find a few good Republicans to work with, then he shouldn’t be the majority leader. Bill Clinton worked very well with the GOP majority in moving the country forward. If Bill Clinton can work with Newt Gingrich, Harry Reid should be able to work with the moderate Republicans still in the Senate.
I believe Kay Hagan will defeat Sen. Elizabeth Dole. The “Godless” ad Sen. Dole ran last week reeks of desperation. She wouldn’t have run it unless she knew she was headed for defeat. I would like to think that North Carolina voters are ready to move beyond the Jesse Helms-Karl Rove politics.
I believe that Norm Coleman will hold his seat in Minnesota. On the one hand, I don’t like the idea of Paul Wellstone’s seat being held by a Republican. On the other hand, I think that Al Franken was a bad candidate and I can’t believe that there wasn’t somebody in Minnesota more qualified for the job. I don’t think that, “I’m famous and can raise a lot of money” is a necessary or sufficient qualification. For this race, I’m indifferent and to voters seem to be having trouble deciding as well.
First, I would like to see Ann Barth defeat Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV-2). I grew up in WV, but not in Rep. Captio’s district. I am concerned that she will be able to make a strong run for Byrd’s Senate seat when he finally retires. Barth seems to be behind in the polls right now, though.
Second, I would like to see Becky Greenwald defeat Tom Lathan (R-IA-4). Polls seem to put her within striking distance, but Rep. Latham outraised Becky and the DNC and Emily’s List waited until mid-September to get involved in the race. Obama doesn’t seem to be polling very well in IA-4, despite the advantage Democrats hold in voter registration. I am interested in this race for two reasons. First, Becky Greenwald would be the first female sent to Congress from Iowa and I think that the more women are empowered in American society, the better. Second, my friend is a senior campaign official.
Third, I would like to see Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) defeated. She is virulently anti-gay, having sponsored the Federal Marriage Amendment. The polls seem to favor her opponent, Betsy Markey and the GOP stopped spending money there a few weeks ago.
Fourth, I would like to see Rep. Michelle Bachman (R-MN) defeated. The district is very Republican and it is likely to swing back to the GOP in 2010, but someone who accuses public officials of being anti-American and calls for an investigation of Congress does not deserve to be in Congress.
And finally, I hope I never hear/read the terms Bradley Effect or PUMA ever again.
So that’s it for me. I, for one, am so glad that this campaign, which for me began in January 2007 when Hillary jumped into the race, is finally almost over. Of course, what will I do on Wednesday morning after my meeting ends when I rush back to my office to look at the Rasmussen daily tracking poll numbers and discover that there aren’t any? OMG….might I actually get work done?