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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

First trackers of the day

All three morning trackers suggest that a week out from the national election, the polls have tightened.  Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51

McCain 46

The numbers couple of days have been at Rasmussen’s year-long high, 52-45.  Rasmussen observes:

Obama’s five-point advantage is down from an eight-point lead yesterday but up a point from the lead he held a week ago. With today’s results, Obama has been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 32 straight days

Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50

McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 52-40.  Dkos Poll Guru DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +11 Friday, +9 Sat and +5 Sunday, with a +14 Thursday sample rolling off. Tomorrow’s sample will replace a +11, so further tightening is possible.

As a statistical matter, Zogby sees Obama’s and McCain’s numbers as essentially stable:

Obama 50

McCain 45

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-44.  Zogby describes the overall trends this way:

Obama leads among independents by 13 points, those who have already voted by 24 points, new voters by 27 points, Hispanics by 48 points and Catholics by 13 points.  McCain holds a slight 2-point lead among men and has increased his lead among white voters to 13 points.


  1. rfahey22

    A one-point gain or drop in Ras could indicate a change of +/- 0.1.  I’m a little surprised by the R2K numbers, but McCain did have a lengthy interview on MTP yesterday.  Other side stories, such as Biden’s statements, “socialism,” etc. may have had some effect.  Ultimately, though, I think that it doesn’t matter that much.  Obama is outspending McCain everywhere and is leading in every major tossup state, any one of which would put us over the top.  Add in early voting and Obama’s ground operation, and I think that McCain would actually have to be leading in national polls on election day in order to secure a victory.  With ~90% of Democrats coming home, that is simply impossible.  Finally, it’s important to remember that these tracking polls have a strange cyclical effect – someone on DKos posted numbers from one week ago, and compared to last Monday, Obama’s numbers are virtually identical.

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