The one thing we do not lack now is data. In some ways, there just seems to be too much of it, but here goes.
Rasmussen reports this morning:
The numbers yesterday were exactly the same, 50-46.
The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month
Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:
These numbers yesterday were the same, 50-42.
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +7 Sat, +8 Sun and +9 Mon. Today’s polling will not completely reflect Colin Powell’s endorsement (or the less important but still politically potent announcement of Obama’s 150 million Sep. fundraiser) but reflective data on that is included for today’s poll.
Zogby sees McCain dropping a couple of points from his position yesterday:
Yesterday, the numbers were 50-44. Zogby sees Obama’s strength coming from his dominance among Democrat and independents while he holds his own among Republicans:
Obama leads McCain by 15 points among independent voters (50% to 35%), and is also winning 12% of the Republican vote, all the while retaining a firm grip on his Democratic base, winning 87% support from members of his own party.
Zogby also has some other interesting trends that indicate our reason for hope is based in reality:
Obama leads by 21 points among those who have already voted, and also maintains a large lead among those who have registered to vote just in the last six months. He leads by two points among men and by 13 among women. He also leads in all but one age demographic – those aged 55-69 – where McCain has a scant one-point edge.
Hotline also sees Obama’s lead over McCain expanding in this morning’s numbers:
The numbers yesterday were 47-42.
Two polls show the race constant with yesterday. Two polls show Obama gaining a slight advantage. Doubtless, new data are on the way, so I’ll opine more as the day goes along.