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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Is Obama Winning in Early Voting in North Carolina?

Early voting commenced in North Carolina on Thursday.  On the first day of voting, 114,000 North Carolinians came to the polls, fully 40 percent more than came to the polls on the first day of voting in 2004.  

There are two encouraging signs for Obama.  First, there was the ratio of Democrats to Republicans:

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.

Second, there was the percentage of African American voters who came to the polls:

African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday’s early voters.  In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

The article observes that Obama needs African American turnout in North Carolina to be 22 to 23 percent to win there.  On the first day, it seemed we’re on track.


  1. Since we’re almost only two weeks away.

    I think Georgia, West Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina are going to be like Iowa was in the primaries, partly because you’ve got the whole Obama campaign out on stilts there.

    There will probably be set backs in places like Florida, which will be nail bitingly/buttock clenchingly close.

    But I predict Obama’s EVs will nearly outstrip McCain’s by 2 to 1

    Great thing about making such predictions now. Everyone will have forgotten in 19 days.  

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