Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Six daily trackers are out

Rasmussen continues to show Obama over 50 percent and the race essentially remaining in the same position it has been in for the last two weeks:

Obama 51

McCain 46

The range yesterday was 52-44, so there was a slight narrowing in the race, the same as we see in the Research 2000/Daily Kos numbers:

Obama 51

McCain 41

Yesterday’s numbers were 52-41.  Last night’s numbers do not reflect perspectives on the debate.  We’ll have to wait till Saturday before we have a complete sense of whether the debate moved anyone to one camp or the other.

Zogby Tracker sees only a two point race:

Obama 47

McCain 45

GWU/Battleground sees a four point race:

Obama 49

McCain 45

Diageo Hotline reports the closest race we have had in quite a while:

Obama-Biden 45

McCain-Palin 44

Meanwhile, Gallup Daily is reporting an Obama lead as expansive as the one we have been seeing in Research 2000/Daily Kos.  Though R2K today reported a 10-point Obama lead, Gallup is reporting an eleven point lead:

Obama 52

McCain 41

Nate Silver at 538.com observes,

Although some of the other tracking polls — like Diageo/Hotline and the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll — show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in (my) model.

 

So to recap for October 8, we’re all over the map:

Gallup Obama, +11

R2K Obama, +10

Rasmussen Obama, +6

GWU/Battleground Obama, +4

Reuters/Zogby Obama, +2

Diageo Hotline Obama, +1


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/ 5 Comments

5 comments

  1. rfahey22

    Also, I can’t trust a thing that Zogby puts out.  The Hotline numbers are all screwed up from yesterday’s manipulation of the party i.d. percentages – I imagine that Hotline will show a “bounce” at the end of the week, when those numbers drop out of the sample.

  2. John Allen

    it’s still looking good. If you adjust the R2K poll down a couple of points because of a Dem lean and you move Ras up 2 for the opposite lean you get an 8 point race. Battleground has been very low for Obama all along and, as I mentioned in a comment above, the Hotline poll has suspect party id numbers.

    I don’t know what to make of the Zogby poll. He’s usually pro-Dem. I’d need to see the internals on that poll before making a comment on its worth. The real wonder here is the Gallup poll. I wonder what the internals look like on that one? Perhaps, they over-identified by party id, just like Hotline did only in the other direction.

  3. John Allen

    that keeps Obama’s numbers down in Zogby.

    Obama is winning 84% of the Democratic Party support and McCain is winning 85% of the Republican Party support – but Obama has the edge among independent voters. He leads McCain among independents, 48 to 39%.

    They must have a lot more Republicans than Dems in their sample.  

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