Rasmussen continues to show Obama over 50 percent and the race essentially remaining in the same position it has been in for the last two weeks:
Obama 51
McCain 46
The range yesterday was 52-44, so there was a slight narrowing in the race, the same as we see in the Research 2000/Daily Kos numbers:
Obama 51
McCain 41
Yesterday’s numbers were 52-41. Last night’s numbers do not reflect perspectives on the debate. We’ll have to wait till Saturday before we have a complete sense of whether the debate moved anyone to one camp or the other.
Zogby Tracker sees only a two point race:
Obama 47
McCain 45
GWU/Battleground sees a four point race:
Obama 49
McCain 45
Diageo Hotline reports the closest race we have had in quite a while:
Obama-Biden 45
McCain-Palin 44
Meanwhile, Gallup Daily is reporting an Obama lead as expansive as the one we have been seeing in Research 2000/Daily Kos. Though R2K today reported a 10-point Obama lead, Gallup is reporting an eleven point lead:
Obama 52
McCain 41
Nate Silver at 538.com observes,
Although some of the other tracking polls — like Diageo/Hotline and the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll — show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in (my) model.
So to recap for October 8, we’re all over the map:
Gallup Obama, +11
R2K Obama, +10
Rasmussen Obama, +6
GWU/Battleground Obama, +4
Reuters/Zogby Obama, +2
Diageo Hotline Obama, +1
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