Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Today’s ZOMG TEH POLLS Snapshot- Plus Bonus “Can We Win Without Florida or Ohio?” Discussion?

The Moose is Loose, here we go again! From our national trackers:


Obama 48, McCain 48


Obama 48, McCain 44

Daily Kos/Research 2000

Obama 49, McCain 43


Obama 47, McCain 42

Some small movement; as you can see, McCain moved up one to tie Obama in the Rasmussen tracker, and Obama gained some ground in the Diageo tracker. All said, we can see the same trend, with the R2K and Rasmussen trackers flanking each end- Obama’s slightly ahead, nationally.

But this isn’t a popularity contest; we’re in a race to 270 electoral votes. So, how is the election breaking down in Battleground states? Here’s a map showing us current battleground states, thanks to

So, who’s performing in the tossup states?

Here’s the breakdown


Quinnipiac– Obama 49, McCain 45


Quinnipiac– Obama 48, McCain 44


Quinnipiac– Obama 47, McCain 45


Quinnipiac– Obama 49, McCain 42

ARG– Obama 50, McCain 45


Rasmussen– McCain 51, Obama 46


Rasmussen– Obama 51, McCain 44


Suffolk– McCain 46, Obama 45


Rasmussen– McCain 50, Obama 46


Rasmussen– Obama 48, McCain 45


Rasmussen– McCain 50, Obama 48

Survey USA– Obama 51, McCain 45

PPP– Obama 48, McCain 46

ABC/WaPo– Obama 51, McCain 43

I’ve included polls only a few days old in this sample size; anything more than a week old is nigh on useless. A week, as we all know, is a lifetime in politics. There have also been some interesting new split decisions as well- PPP, headquartered in North Carolina, polled Obama running even there; the University of New Hampshire had McCain as a two-point favorite there; Selzer had a poll out with Obama ahead in Indiana.

But until we get more information, we can only go on the information we have. Let’s clean up this map and push the leaners.

Final Tally

Obama 282, McCain 256

And there we have a win, ladies and gentlemen, and a fairly comfortable one at that, akin to 2004 on the margins. And that without Florida and Ohio, too! This would be the first time since 1960 that’s been accomplished. Of course, this doesn’t mean that we should ignore Ohio or Florida; and neither does it mean we can afford to slack off anywhere on this map. For instance, if we lose Virginia in this equation, we’re back down to a 269 to 269 tie, which Obama would likely win in Congress… but I’d much rather not have to have that sort of win.

It’s also been postulated that Obama’s ground game, which paid off in spades during the Democratic primary, will do so again. Obama has polled, as noted before, surprisingly close in a number of traditionally red states, and a few of the battleground states we threw for McCain (Nevada and New Hampshire), and a few trending-McCain-but-close states (Ohio, and perhaps Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and yes, perhaps even West Virginia) could go Democratic in November. While that would be fantastic, all we have now is circumstantial evidence.

Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?



  1. If things keep going the way they have been for the last week and Obama does well in the debates, I think we can add NH, OH, FL, NV, and IN to the blue states for a total of 349 EC votes for Obama. Dreaming? Maybe, but maybe not.

  2. No names mentioned though. I suppose there are three factors I could ask about which could skew the polls, and I wish I had some info on these.

    1. How Obama’s ground game, registration, turnout, youth vote etc is underestimated in the polling models.

    2. Could there be a Bradley effect or some other hidden republican bias?

    3. How does this compare in ‘feel’ to 2004. I remember Kerry led by similar margins at one point, but did you all feel more nervous then?

    Personally, I think that, given the cultural divisions in the US, Obama is doing damn well

  3. sanguine giant

    you need to be a bit more through in your looking at polls, for instance

    ABC/Washington Post poll of FL for an Obama lead of 3-8% (depending on the ballot)

    I thought there was another poll of FL as well but I am currently befuddled due to engineering

  4. rfahey22

    although I hope we do something to shore up NH – assuming we lose VA but everything else on the map stays the same, we would be looking at a 269-269 tie.  Anyway, if I were in charge I’d ask the Clintons to camp out in MI, PA, and OH, with occasional visits to FL as well.  Biden should do the same.  Obama could split time between VA, CO, and any other states in need of a boost (such as NH, maybe also MN).

    • Rose Colored Shades.

      McCain will get votes, those things just happen.  But if Obama gets less than 300 electoral votes, I’ll post pictures proving I have eaten a picture of McCain.

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