Motley Moose – Archive

The problem with the U.S. Senate polls heading into the final week before election day is that when you dig a little deeper, they are essentially saying that most of the races are “too close to call”.

Yet that does not stop the breathless headlines: “Democrats will be crushed by Republican wave” or “Democratic majority doomed”.

I recommend listening to this Guy, Guy Cecil, who says that we can win ALL the close Senate elections if we just get out the vote, even in states where there are more Republicans than Democrats.

How? Well, state by state (from the video):

– CO (mail-in means 2 million more voters than in 2010),

– AR (95,000 more AA voters, 5% bump),

– LA (900,000 new AA voters since Katrina),

– AK (Turnout among native people),

– NC (education is #2 issue which has no anti-Obama component),

– IA (D dominating early vote, non-2010 voters are voting Democratic),

– GA (New AA voters, maximize Atlanta and southern GA),

– KY (Tied, key is turnout in Louisville, high negatives for McConnell),

– SD (Not giving up),

– NH (Shaheen is up and will stay up)

– MN (Franken is a lock)

New voters, re-energized voters, non-2010 voters. Democratic voters.

So who is this Guy and why should we listen to him?

Are you ready? …

Voter Turnout in Four Charts

A recent Pew study finds that non-voters are far more likely to oppose repealing Obamacare and support government “doing more things.” While likely voters were split between Obama and Romney, each with 47 percent of the vote, non-voters supported Obama by a whopping 35 points (59 percent to 24 percent). […]

All of this suggests that more turnout, particularly among low-income voters, would shift our political system to the left. The Median Voter Theorem postulates that democratic systems will produce policy outcomes that align with the preferences of the median voter suggests that turnout gaps as a source of policy bias toward more affluent households. Because non-voters are more economically liberal than voters, the median voter is more conservative than the electorate at large. If more low-income people voted, politicians would become more economically liberal to court the new voters. […]

Politicians respond to voters, not non-voters.

Don’t leave your lives in the hands of those who, quite literally, do not give a darn about your life. Your vote will not only elect people who believe in the value of government but it will put pressure on those politicians who think they can get away with ignoring you. Turn out and tell them NO.

The Great Kansas Tea Party Disaster

Extremist Republicans turned their government into a lab experiment of tax cuts and privatization. And now they may be losing control of one of the reddest states in the nation

“Tea Party Disaster” – my new favorite phrase. May the receding tide from the 2010 wave wash away the GOP governors who put their national party above their constituents needs.

More …

Found on the Internets …

A funny thing happened on the way to the midterms …

Morning Plum: Obamacare disappearing as major issue

For many months after the botched rollout of the Affordable Care Act’s website, it was widely stated as incontrovertible fact that Obamacare was the primary reason Democrats were likely to lose control of the Senate.

But new ad data compiled by Bloomberg News tells a very different story. In three of the top-tier Senate races – North Carolina, Arkansas, and Louisiana – spending on spots about the health law has fallen sharply:

   The party’s experience across the country shows that Republicans can’t count on the issue to motivate independent voters they need to oust Democrats in Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska…

Some GOP candidates, such as Thom Tillis in North Carolina and Scott Brown in New Hampshire, have even vaguely claimed the newly insured should somehow continue to enjoy the law’s benefits after it is repealed – again, without saying how. Others, such as Terri Lynn Land in Michigan and Tom Cotton in Arkansas, won’t say whether the Medicaid expansion moving forward in their states should be rolled back.

Why has this disappeared as a campaign issue? Because the horror stories about premiums skyrocketing were just stories, wishful thinking by Republicans who have no qualms about sacrificing the lives of their constituents on the altar of their anti-government ideology.

TPM:The Obamacare Headline That The GOP Doesn’t Want You To See

The headlines were all too predictable when Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield announced in June that it would request an average 12.5 percent premium increase for its Connecticut market. “Now EVEN MORE States Report Double-Digit Premium Hikes,” the conservative Daily Caller trumpeted.

But that wasn’t the whole story. It never is with Obamacare premium news, though that hasn’t stopped news outlets from blaring headlines like that one from the Daily Caller whenever an insurance company announces its proposed rates for next year. Skyrocketing premiums are one of the last anti-Obamacare talking points that conservatives have to hold onto.

But then on Monday, the conclusion of the Connecticut story came. State insurance regulators had rejected Anthem’s proposed 12.5 percent premium hike. So after some revisions, the company would instead lower its premiums ever so slightly on average — 0.1 percent — in 2015, the Connecticut Mirror reported.

There’s more …