Motley Moose – Archive

Polls close in a few hours and the Florida GOP primary will probably determine the course of the nomination race and possibly cement Romney’s frontrunner status.

Aggregate polling has shown a very slight tightening but the only significant variation among pollsters is the magnitude of the lead Romney enjoys although most agree he is now the expected victor.  One interesting exception has been the recent Dixie Strategies/The News-Press/First Coast News poll which predicts a dead heat:

Our poll has Gingrich leading Romney by an eyelash – 35.46 percent to 35.08.

Could our poll be right and all the others wrong? Maybe.

In polling terminology, our poll is what’s called an outlier (for a set of numerical data, any value that is markedly smaller or larger than other values).

However, there is one factor that works in our favor. The News-Press poll’s sample size (2,567 likely voters) is three to four times larger than that of other pollsters and thus our poll has a very small margin of error (1.93 percent) with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Scott Bihr – Why our poll may be right News-Press 28 Jan 12

Given the brawl that this campaign has become it will be interesting to see how the Gingrich/Romney battle in Florida influences the remaining contests.  In spite of Gingrich’s assertion that he will carry the fight all the way to the convention it is pretty hard to see how he could if he loses big to Romney tonight.  On the other hand a narrow victory or loss could derail Romney’s presumed coronation, given his immense media buy and his campaign’s apparently reckless attitude toward managing expectations in this contest.