Motley Moose – Archive

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

A few months ago Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin made the Republican response to President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address.

Mr. Ryan’s speech focused heavily on the national debt, which he declared as a one of his “greatest concerns as a parent.” The representative used the example of his three children to emphasize the grave importance of the issue, which was the main theme of his speech.

Mr. Ryan’s call to reduce the national debt, while necessary and useful, was also somewhat lacking in specifics – because many of the specific actions required to reduce the debt either are unpopular, or go against the priorities of the Republican Party.

More below.

Asians are one of the most ignored constituencies in American politics. When most politicians think about the Asian vote, they don’t.

Yet the Asian-American population is increasing, both in absolute terms and relative ones. By 2050, the Census estimates that Asians will compose 7.8% of the American population. Although their voting rates will still fall far short of this, the population is becoming more influential. Predicting their future voting path therefore has some utility.

In previous posts, this blogger has argued that the Latino vote will likely trend Republican, as Latinos follow the path of previous immigrants and become more assimilated.

Will the same happen for Asian-Americans?

More below.

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Almost everybody agrees that President Barack Obama’s re-election chances depend almost exclusively on one thing: the state of the American economy. If, for instance, unemployment is below 7% by November 2012, Mr. Obama could very well win a Reagan-style blow-out. If, on the other hand, unemployment is still in double-digits by November 2012, Mr. Obama may as well kiss his re-election chances goodbye.

The second scenario would probably occur in the event of another recession. The greatest danger, therefore, to the president’s re-election chances would be something that would hurt the economy badly enough to knock it back into recession.

What could cause such an event?

More below.

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

During my high school years, I had the acquaintance of a fellow student – a person who still holds a strong presence in my memory. This person was one of the most ambitious, most determined individuals in the school; today she goes to one of America’s top universities. She may very well be the next president of the United States – and this is a serious statement.

One day this student asked me an interesting question: “What do you see me doing when I’m fifty years old?”

I teased, “I see you as a high school English teacher.”

She laughed, “I would kill myself if that happened.”

More below.

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Much interest – and muted apprehension – has been focused on the rapid growth of China’s economy. The Great Recession barely put a dent on the country’s continuing expansion, in stark contrast to the troubled economies of the First World.

Yet now an interesting thing is occurring; one hears murmurs about weakness in the Chinese economy, murmers which were not heard last year.

More below.

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Former president George W. Bush’s book “Decision Points” has been published. While not exactly an exciting page-turner, the book does provide some insight into the White House for much of the last decade. There are several interesting things that “Decision Points” says.

This is the second part of two posts analyzing and challenging the idea of a “permanent Democratic majority.” The previous part can be found here.

A “Permanent Democratic Majority”

The previous post argued that the “permanent Democratic majority” – the idea that growth in Democratic-voting Hispanics will lead to Democratic dominance – depends on two assumptions. It outlined critiques of each assumption, and potential counterarguments against these critiques.

Here is my personal view on what will happen with each assumption:

More below.

This is the first part of two posts analyzing and challenging  the idea of a “permanent Democratic majority.” The second part can be  found here.

A “Permanent Democratic Majority”

The permanent Democratic majority is a theory spun by many Democratic  analysts optimistic about their party’s future. It asserts that  demographic changes will leave the Republican Party in a state of  perpetual minority.

Let’s take a look at this thesis and the underlying assumptions upon which it relies.

By: inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

It’s quite interesting to see how America perceives Spanish. There are two quite different ways that the Spanish language is viewed in the American imagination. Indeed, in many ways these two approaches are the exact opposite.

The first way is the one more associated with American politics. This is the nativist perspective, the one which led to the defeat of the DREAM Act.

More below.

This is a part of a series of posts analyzing the 2010 midterm elections. This post will discuss the 2010 Florida gubernatorial election, which Republican candidate Rick Scott won in an extremely close contest.

Florida’s Gubernatorial Election

On November 2010, Democrat Alex Sink faced an extremely flawed Republican opponent: multimillionaire Rick Scott, a businessman accused of heading the biggest fraud in Medicare history.

Ms. Sink still lost, running in a Republican leaning state in a very Republican environment. Here is what happened:

More below.