Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

State of the Race- Just Two Weeks To Go!

A month ago, when we brought you the first edition of State of the Race, here’s what the map looked like (as always, thanks to 270ToWin.com):

A squeaker, by any means, but a win- 282 Obama, 256 McCain. And that was with the leaners pushed! At that time, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado were all swing states, some definately in McCain’s favor.

How things have changed!

Here’s what the election would probably look like if it were held today- conservatively.

A much more comfortable map to look at, and, as I mentioned, a potentially more conservative one. Right now, Florida is polling fairly well for Obama, but today Rasmussen posted a poll giving McCain a one-point lead. Obviously, one poll does not a consensus make, but Florida was always going to be tough for Obama. Ohio is also polling in a similar manner (McCain plus two in Rasmussen today). Given that, it’s also best to keep in mind those two states are where the GOP has the most infrastructure for voter supression and other general shenanigans.

This is combined with noise from the McCain campaign that they are conceding Colorado to Obama, and moving all their available assets to Pennsylvania to try and pull an upset there. Giving McCain PA, MO, and NC on our map brings the race to 270-268 in Obama’s favor- but we’re seeing double digit leads in nearly every poll out there, and given Obama’s momentum and cash advantage, I don’t see Pennsylvania flipping. But McCain doesn’t have much choice; try like hell to hold on to North Carolina and Missouri, try to flip Pennsylvania, and then hope like hell Nevada flips to McCain.

But, nonetheless, here we have a solid map in Obama’s favor. North Carolina and Missouri are probably the two weakest links in that chain, but losing those would take us to the 290s- still more than enough to win, of course.

With the possible addition of Florida, Ohio, Montana, North Dakota, Georgia, and West Virginia, we’ll truly have an overwhelming landslide.


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/ 8 Comments

8 comments

  2. Peter Jukes

    Thanks for this. Because of past traumas I still get fixated on the Ohio and Florida results. Looks like a great backup plan emerging.

    But despite years of having my positive hunches greeted with cold showers of cruel reality, I’m hoping for several of those outliers, and because of early voting and the ground game, I have high hopes of Georgia and even West Virginia.

    Fingers, legs, and every available extension crossed, but it looks like we could have a sense of the election earlier in the evening of the 4th.  

  3. rfahey22

    I know people say that we need to keep our nose to the grindstone (although I’m not really affecting the race much, here in cyberspace), but McCain’s campaign really is in its “last throes.”  He has no cash, no message, and no major events on the horizon to turn things around.  He’s adrift in space, with nothing to grab hold of.

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