Motley Moose – Archive

I’ve argued several times here that we are making a weaker argument, with regard to rhetorical effectiveness, than we might be.  It’s not about moral fairness, or at least not only about that.  It’s about sustainable economic growth.  To paraphrase a conservative politician from Ireland, who was also a fair poet, without the center, our economy and our republic cannot hold.  Things will fall apart.  And I don’t mean the political center but the middle class.

Congratulations, Mr. Tomasky.  Somehow, my message has gotten through:

I have praised Barack Obama on previous occasions for finally (after nearly three years) figuring out he needs to position himself as the defender of the middle class and the Republicans as the defenders of the wealthy. It’s been a big improvement. But he’s still mostly missing something, and it’s a very important something-something Democrats miss a lot. Obama, in the standard Democratic fashion, is largely making an argument about society. Republicans, in contrast, offer a theory about economic growth. Now, the Republicans’ theory is a ridiculous lie. But even so, it is much more arresting and persuasive as an argument because it is tied to crucial end results. Obama and the Democrats will have far less trouble selling their message if they figure out how to construct their case more the way Republicans do.

Read the rest here: http://www.thedailybeast.com/a…

The facts are on our side.  Of course we want a fairer and more egalitarian society.  But no one likes the kid on the playground who is always crying about fairness in the middle of the game.  But the kid who can organize the game successfully by getting all the kids involved is on track to win class president and team captain.

Polls close in a few hours and the Florida GOP primary will probably determine the course of the nomination race and possibly cement Romney’s frontrunner status.

Aggregate polling has shown a very slight tightening but the only significant variation among pollsters is the magnitude of the lead Romney enjoys although most agree he is now the expected victor.  One interesting exception has been the recent Dixie Strategies/The News-Press/First Coast News poll which predicts a dead heat:

Our poll has Gingrich leading Romney by an eyelash – 35.46 percent to 35.08.

Could our poll be right and all the others wrong? Maybe.

In polling terminology, our poll is what’s called an outlier (for a set of numerical data, any value that is markedly smaller or larger than other values).

However, there is one factor that works in our favor. The News-Press poll’s sample size (2,567 likely voters) is three to four times larger than that of other pollsters and thus our poll has a very small margin of error (1.93 percent) with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Scott Bihr – Why our poll may be right News-Press 28 Jan 12

Given the brawl that this campaign has become it will be interesting to see how the Gingrich/Romney battle in Florida influences the remaining contests.  In spite of Gingrich’s assertion that he will carry the fight all the way to the convention it is pretty hard to see how he could if he loses big to Romney tonight.  On the other hand a narrow victory or loss could derail Romney’s presumed coronation, given his immense media buy and his campaign’s apparently reckless attitude toward managing expectations in this contest.