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Florida GOP Primary: Open Thread

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(Timely observations – promoted by fogiv)

Polls close in a few hours and the Florida GOP primary will probably determine the course of the nomination race and possibly cement Romney’s frontrunner status.

Aggregate polling has shown a very slight tightening but the only significant variation among pollsters is the magnitude of the lead Romney enjoys although most agree he is now the expected victor.  One interesting exception has been the recent Dixie Strategies/The News-Press/First Coast News poll which predicts a dead heat:


Our poll has Gingrich leading Romney by an eyelash – 35.46 percent to 35.08.

Could our poll be right and all the others wrong? Maybe.

In polling terminology, our poll is what’s called an outlier (for a set of numerical data, any value that is markedly smaller or larger than other values).

However, there is one factor that works in our favor. The News-Press poll’s sample size (2,567 likely voters) is three to four times larger than that of other pollsters and thus our poll has a very small margin of error (1.93 percent) with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Scott Bihr – Why our poll may be right News-Press 28 Jan 12

Given the brawl that this campaign has become it will be interesting to see how the Gingrich/Romney battle in Florida influences the remaining contests.  In spite of Gingrich’s assertion that he will carry the fight all the way to the convention it is pretty hard to see how he could if he loses big to Romney tonight.  On the other hand a narrow victory or loss could derail Romney’s presumed coronation, given his immense media buy and his campaign’s apparently reckless attitude toward managing expectations in this contest.


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/ 80 Comments

80 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    Doesn’t win big he will have to do another round of messaging to explain how that happened after spending something like $16M in Florida alone.

    Personally I think Gingrich’s polling understates his support but on the other hand he has been a complete dick about most things since the last debate and has made some ridiculous claims on the campaign trail.  But if he gets within of 5% of Romney I wonder if Romney’s “carpet bombing” strategy will be seen as a modest failure.  We’ll see.

    Interesting to note that in national polling Santorum is edging up to almost par with Gingrich in second place.

  2. HappyinVT

    and want someone else to jump in. Unfortunately, I’d guess 6-7 in 10 will suck it up in November and vote for the eventual nominee.

  5. Shaun Appleby

    9% reporting and Romney is 52%.  Wonder if that is the early votes we’ve heard so much about being counted.

  7. HappyinVT

    Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said Tuesday he wouldn’t rule out voting for President Barack Obama in November.

    Crist – who was a member of the Republican party until 2010 and is now a registered independent – said in interviews with MSNBC and CNN that he would “consider” casting his ballot for Obama on election day.

    snip

    This has been a tough time for the president to govern, I think everyone understands that. But we’re starting to see some positive signs going forward as it relates to the economy. That’s very important.”

    snip

    He told CNN that making an attempt at unity, such as he did with Obama during his time as an elected official, may be political suicide.

    “Well, maybe it is,” he said. “Certainly it seems to be in the Republican party, where the word ‘compromise’ has almost become a dirty word.”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…

    At least he’s thoughtful and not interested in ideology over everything else.

  9. Strummerson

    Don’t know which is more disturbing, the Romney-Carter parallel or the Gingrich-Kennedy parallel.  OK, definitely the latter.  Barf.

  10. Shaun Appleby

    Like Gingrich just got buried again.  Hard to see where either he or Santorum go from here.  Sadly the predictions of an early Romney wrap on the nomination seem to be correct; not good news for Democrats.

  12. HappyinVT

    aamom/OBAMABOT @AVD911

    More people clicked on Obama’s YouTube video singing Al Green (over 5m) than voted for Newt. In all 4 states.

    Retweeted by BWD

  13. fogiv

    A newly discovered letter from a freed former slave to his onetime master is creating a buzz. Letters of Note explains that in August of 1865, a Colonel P.H. Anderson of Big Spring, Tennessee wrote to his former slave Jourdan Anderson, requesting that Jourdan return to work on his farm.

    In the time since escaping from slavery, Anderson had become emancipated, moved to Ohio where he found paid work and was now supporting his family. The letter turned up in the August 22 edition of the New York Daily Tribune.

    {snip}

    As to my freedom, which you say I can have, there is nothing to be gained on that score, as I got my free papers in 1864 from the Provost-Marshal-General of the Department of Nashville. Mandy says she would be afraid to go back without some proof that you were disposed to treat us justly and kindly; and we have concluded to test your sincerity by asking you to send us our wages for the time we served you. This will make us forget and forgive old scores, and rely on your justice and friendship in the future. I served you faithfully for thirty-two years, and Mandy twenty years. At twenty-five dollars a month for me, and two dollars a week for Mandy, our earnings would amount to eleven thousand six hundred and eighty dollars. Add to this the interest for the time our wages have been kept back, and deduct what you paid for our clothing, and three doctor’s visits to me, and pulling a tooth for Mandy, and the balance will show what we are in justice entitled to. Please send the money by Adams’s Express, in care of V. Winters, Esq., Dayton, Ohio. If you fail to pay us for faithful labors in the past, we can have little faith in your promises in the future. We trust the good Maker has opened your eyes to the wrongs which you and your fathers have done to me and my fathers, in making us toil for you for generations without recompense. Here I draw my wages every Saturday night; but in Tennessee there was never any pay-day for the negroes any more than for the horses and cows. Surely there will be a day of reckoning for those who defraud the laborer of his hire.

    you gotta read the rest.  omg.

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/si…

  14. Shaun Appleby

    There is something so vacant and breathtakingly inauthentic about Romney that the thought that even Republicans could select him as their nominee is profoundly disheartening.  In spite of my abiding contempt I still consistently overestimate the “common sense” of conservatives in matters of aesthetics and good taste.

    If this is the “new normal” something has gone terribly, terribly wrong.

  15. Rashaverak

    If I heard him correctly, in his post-election speech, in which I don’t recall him conceding or even mentioning Mittens by name, Teh Newt pledged to Teh Cause his wife, his fortune, and his sacred honor.

  16. creamer

    the budget without raising taxes. Why would anyone except the ultra rich like the way that would look?

    When they talk about cutting food stamps why do I imagine more hungary people?

    Mitt and Newt base their whole existence on not being Obama. They dont need a coherent plan, they just arent black and cant sing.

  17. HappyinVT

    comments made by a candidate in recent years:

    Mitt Romney is on the defensive over his wealth on Wednesday after telling a CNN reporter that “I’m not concerned about the very poor, we have a safety net there.” http://2012.talkingpointsmemo….  

    One, that shows a stunning lack of empathy or sympathy or understanding.  And, two, if the GOP had its way there would be no safety net.

  20. John Allen

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02…

    There are a lot of pet lovers that read and comment on balloon-juice.com. This story was a natural for them. It’s an eight-page story about a family that adopted a boy that turned out to have fetal alcohol syndrome and how a service dog ended up changing their lives for the better. It’s really well-written. It’s also quite moving. I found myself misting up while I read it.

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