Motley Moose – Archive

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Colorado.

Conclusions

Colorado is much like the previous state analyzed in this series: Virginia. Both states were seen until recently as Republican strongholds and rightfully so; President George W. Bush handily won both states in 2004 and 2000.

Yet in 2004, both states showed signs of shifting Democratic. Virginia barely moved Democratic even as the South swung heavily against Senator John Kerry. As for Colorado – it actually shifted 3.7% more Democratic, against the national tide. Indeed, in 2004 Mr. Kerry performed better in Colorado than he did in Florida.

More below.

Congressman John Mica, the Florida Republican who bears a major share of the responsibility for the FAA shutdown, has caught a lot of flack for his shenanigans.  He has expressed surprise that the Democrats decided to play hardball.  Did either side learn any lessons?

There’s no pleasure in the vindication: four years after Northern Rock’s collapse, three years after Lehmann, those of us who predicted  a double dip recession are seeing it transpire before our eyes.

In that sense, it is fair to argue that the recent increases in the public-sector indebtedness of many developed economies is the consequence in large part of the decisions taken in 2007 and 2008 not to let the banks and the financial system collapse.

Arguably the deleveraging of the banks, the shrinkage in their balance sheets, has been transferred to the state.

The overall volume of indebtedness in the economy is therefore still with us – although it has been shuffled from financial sector to public sector.

The massive debt of the shadow banking system, now socialised and transferred to the tax payer across Europe and the US, is causing a run on sovereign debt across Europe: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and now even Belgium are seeing the costs of government borrowing rise. They’re trapped in a uniquely evil trap:

1. Borrow to reflate – and see the bond markets speculate the debt is unserviceable

2. Cut expenditure – and see the bond markets speculate the lack of growth is unsustainable

My mother was fond of telling me–after several instances in which I did not get my way as a child–that I could always go “pout” about it. My dad had an Army-related phrase for it: “Go pound sand.”

Part of the growing-up process as a child was getting beyond temporary setbacks–psychological, physical or otherwise–and doing what needed to be done at school, around the house or in the community. Coming of age in rural America, without the frills of shopping malls or high-speed internet, drove this message home even farther.

One individual who knew the virtues of a rural upbringing well was a man named Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus. A Roman, more than four centuries before the birth of Christ, Cincinnatus was forced to live a very simple life on a small farm he and his family used mainly for subsistence. Yet when Rome fell pray to misfortune in a fight against the Aequians and the Sabines–and the Roman senate devolved into a state of panic–Cincinnatus was called upon by his fellow countrymen to serve as dictator, wielding totalitarian power, in order to defeat the empire’s foes.

A remarkable sixteen days later, Cincinnatus had vanquished his foe and, instead of continuing to enjoy his unrivaled power, resigned as dictator and went back to tending his farm.

There are few greater stories of humility than the life of Cincinnatus.

subtitle: Will some ever learn?

Remember the outrage from some quarters on the budget deal Obama negotiated last spring. On how once again he had sold us out. And then a few days pass and some serious folks start running the numbers and what happens oooops. It seems that he actually hadn’t. The Republicans had bought into smoke, mirrors and accounting  tricks. Accounting has never been their strong suit.

So here we are again and this is starting to creep into the saner Democratic/Progressive blogs.

Consider this:

A fragmentation of power, capital and ideas is creating a new map of the world – with lasting implications for investors and policymakers alike.

The evidence is everywhere. Europe beginning to roll back key aspects of the free market even as it manages yet another bail-out of Greece; the failure of the Copenhagen climate change negotiations; a Doha trade round dead in all but name; the emergence of new global governance structures, such as G-20; the flows of macro-finance investments between emerging markets combining state and business interests; China’s “going out” strategy upending traditional vectors of global capital and influence; an Arab Awakening as much defined by its diversity as its aspiration for accountability and legitimate government; the resurgence of nationalist, populist movements across rich and poor parts of the world; a proliferation of hybrid economic and political systems defying old categories of left and right, liberal and authoritarian.

Nader Mousavizadeh – How we got to the archipelago world Reuters 25 July 11

Looking at Nader’s track record we are inclined to believe he is a post-neoconservative, certainly a voice among the Davos cohort, but he may have a point, here’s the thesis:

Instead, what we’re seeing is an emerging world of sovereign states vertically integrating national interests across the public and private sectors – and then going out strategically to compete for resources, growth and job creation. Having previously understood global interdependence as a reason for horizontal integration across markets and regions, states as diverse as Finland, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Mexico are now pursuing distinct, often bilateral, strategies for economic and political security. This is the new dynamic of global competition – one with implications as profound as they can seem contradictory.

Nader Mousavizadeh – How we got to the archipelago world Reuters 25 July 11

When we see similar “vertical integration” of nativist xenophobia among the skinheads of our respective cultures it may be worth taking notice.

This is the fourth part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state  Colorado. It will focus on the complex territory that constitutes the Democratic base in Colorado. The last part can be found here.

Democratic Colorado

In American politics, the Democratic base is almost always more complex than the Republican base, a fact which is largely due to complex historical factors. Democrats wield a large and heterogeneous coalition – one which often splinters based on one difference or another. The Republican base is more cohesive.

The same is true for Colorado. Republican Colorado generally consists of rural white Colorado and parts of suburban white Colorado. Democratic Colorado is more difficult to characterize.

A look into President Barack Obama’s strongest counties provides some insight:

More below.

The difference could not have been more stark between Democratic and GOP reactions in the aftermath of yesterday’s passage of the debt ceiling deal.  Boehner gloated Mon. evening that he got “98%” of what he wanted and claimed to be “very happy.”  No question here that he dragged the ugly, singed, diminished and shapeless mass that is his speakership out of the Tee Party’s campfire.  McConnell doubled down on using the debt ceiling as an extortion device.  Most of the commentariat shook its head in dissatisfaction with the President’s negotiating performance.  One fascinating round-table with lefty academics I read focused on the question of whether Obama is weak or a neo-conservative who is little better than Irving Kristol (a bit hyperbolic, but some solid points were made all around, especially by Adolf Reed – http://coreyrobin.com/2011/08/… ).   Reid, Pelosi, and Obama, as well as other congressional leaders made cases ranging from “it could have been a lot worse,” “we protected entitlements,” “now we can focus hard core and tough on jobs,” to “we were the responsible ones” and “they gave up stuff too, the system worked and compromises were made on both sides.”  But this doesn’t really seem to match Boehner’s “98%!!!” and McConnell’s “extortion is awesome.”  

The fact is, the GOP held a match to our ability to function, to all our mortgages, to our ability to pay our military, our elderly, our teachers, and ultimately to Wall Street itself and extracted an economically harmful bill that will further burden the recovery.  This is what they have called “fiscal responsibility.”  It seems to me, given that the market tanked yesterday, that our credit rating is still in jeopardy, and that no economist believes that this will aid jobs and growth, that we would have been better off to declare defeat.  This was their victory.  We made mistakes that enabled them to victimize the American economy out of ideological zeal and with unethical tactics that can only be justified through ignorance or fanaticism or both.  We will not blink again.  They own this.  They have shoved us deeper into a crisis.  We knew they were extreme and that they fail to understand economics.  But we believed that they would hold the nation and the welfare of American families as sacred, not as hostages to implement their facile slogans and flatter their own ideological self-righteousness.  We will not make that mistake again.  Neither should you.

Next summer, as the recovery continues to founder, we should run that clip of Boehner gloating that he got 98% of what he wanted and ask whether people believe that we could survive the other 2%.

Or on the rock, as the case may be. I’ve been busy the last few days with work, so I haven’t been as plugged in to the 24/7 freak out festivus as I would have otherwise been. I have to say it’s been nice to not have the extra stress, the extra worry.

I thought maybe some of you could use a quick break from the the blogo-spazz out. Why not step outside with me, and take a look at some of the things have that have kept my mind off the pros and cons of the worst best probably not as bad as some would have you believe debt deal legislation. At a minimum, click though to see what I mean by the title and the opening line.

Never in history have we cut our way out of a recession.  No nation state in history has ever done so.  The vast majority of economists and historians have demonstrated this conclusively.  We need to grow our way out of this problem.

The deficit is a long-term problem.  We must address it by growing our economy while trimming spending only in ways that do not work against growth.  

We have cut taxes on the wealthiest to historic levels and still the private sector hesitates to invest in America by creating jobs.  Government must lead by creating jobs that will put money in the pockets of more Americans.  This will expand the market and encourage private sector job growth, enabling us to cut back public sector jobs once the economy is growing at an adequate rate.  It will also increase revenues to help support our investment in America’s future by increasing the number of Americans paying income tax to the federal government and sales tax to city and state governments.  Foreclosures will no longer force American families into desperate situations where they cannot contribute to the economy, nor will they threaten the solvency of our banks and financial institutions.

Our opponents cast government as a threat to liberty.  The history of the United States is revolutionary in that it demonstrated how the government of a Democratic Republic can increase liberty.  The US government has worked to guarantee personal freedoms, voting rights, property rights and continues to protect them.  Our government, representative as it is of the American people, our ideals and our traditions, is not a threat to liberty, but its primary advocate and guarantor.  It is our duty to continue to lead the civilized world by setting the finest example of Republican Democracy that we can.  We must continue to lead the way.  Attacking our own government with paranoid slanders, undermining our economy with a faith-based moral perspective that ignores historical precedent, as opposed to building ourselves back up with a faith in our ideals that helps us recognize the facts and lessons of our own history, is an abdication of everything good this country has represented since our founders replaced a tyrannical government with one subject to and in service to all its citizens.

The causes of our current crisis are neither moral nor pathological.  We have not lost our way, nor have we become beleaguered addicts to waste and corruption.  The causes are practical and the solutions must be pragmatic.  While government cannot be the entire solution, there is no solving this crisis without vigorous government leadership.

We engaged in wars without raising the funds to wage them.  No taxes were raised and no bonds sold.  We must bring these wars to a close as soon as we can responsibly do so.  

We stripped away necessary regulations that protected the parameters of our financial system.  We must restore those regulations that, like the rules in any competitive sport, enable players and teams to excel.  

Finally, we must address income inequality.  No society has ever been able to operate in a stable and peaceful manner without a reasonable distribution of wealth.  The wealthy, in hording far too much of our nation’s economic value, are threatening not only the rest of us, but the basis of their own prosperity.  They are starving the goose that has laid their golden eggs.  This must be addressed through comprehensive tax reform.

Our opponents want government to retreat precisely when we need it to lead.  Our opponents demonize government and claim to represent the American people.  They do indeed represent a percentage of the American people.  But not all of the American people.  Those who disagree with them are no less a part of the American people.  The American people elected a government to lead, not retreat.  Government office holders must both listen to all the people that elected them and that elected their colleagues and they must lead as they were elected to do.  Government must lead both responsively and responsibly.  Demonizing the US government is anti-patriotic.  It demonizes the people that elected that government.  

Taxes are neither evil nor sacred.  They are tools that must be used appropriately.  It’s easy to base an entire movement on hatred of taxes.  It’s easy to base an entire movement on hatred of a government bogey man.  It’s easy to scare people by telling them that government seeks to restrict their liberty.  It’s easy to pander to people with false analogies and flatter them with appeals to common sense.  Common sense cannot replace expertise when dealing with complex systems.  National economies are not simply larger versions of family and business economies.  They are the context that enables the functions of businesses and families.  Anarchy, the lack of government, does not protect families or the conditions in which businesses flourish.  Our national economy is not just a bigger system, but a more complex one.  

When you need surgery and your life is at stake, you want the most highly trained, skilled, and learned surgical team.  But you also need that team to explain to you why its diagnosis and plan for treatment is the optimal one.  Your surgeon and her team have this responsibility.  Our economic predicament is as complex a system as a human body.  We won’t solve it with platitudes and flattering lip service to our common sense.  Platitudes and flattery are a form of condescension.  We must turn to our leaders and economists and demand clear explanations.  We must join together to make prudent decisions.  Immediate, simple, miracle cures are nothing but snake oil.  We must have faith in ourselves and at the same time listen and learn with humility.  

Slogans and catch phrases will feed our anger and fears, not relieve their causes.  It’s time to put aside divisive rhetoric and easy slogans.  It’s time to pull together to solve our problems.  FDR taught that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  Bill Clinton reminded us that “there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be fixed by what’s right with America.”  If we shed our fear and look to what’s right with America, we will fulfill Ronald Reagan’s vision of a new “morning in America.”  Let us put aside our fretting and our fighting.  Let’s get to work.