No, you won’t learn about Mayan calendars or solar maxima in this post. This is about a different event in 2012. November 6, 2012, to be more exact. 
That’s still a ways off, but I thought I’d pontificate a bit about it now, even though making predictions about details this far ahead would be kind of silly.
We don’t know who the GOP will put forward. It could be any of 4-5. It might even be a dark horse candidate. Maybe Sarah will go rogue and run as the Conservative Party candidate. Please, please, please…
It would be safer to make the prediction that President Obama will be the Democratic candidate, although that is not a sure thing. Sitting presidents have faced primary challenges in the past. It all depends on events, some President Obama has no control over.
I will make one prediction. And, it comes with conditionals. If the economy improves and most people believe it has improved, if we start withdrawing troops from Iraq, if Afghanistan or Pakistan don’t go too badly, and if there is no terrorist attack on the United States, then President Obama will be re-elected in a landslide. There’s a flaw in that reasoning, but I’d rather leave other possibilities unsaid.
Now, on the other hand, if those things all go badly President Obama may not be the Democratic candidate in 2012. If they go really badly we might even end up with a Republican president.
Some of you may be surprised by the omission of health care reform on that list. The way I see it, the only way health care might negatively affect the President in 2012 is if reform passes and people don’t like it. That may be why so much of it doesn’t kick in until 2013. I think the Democrats will be hurt at the polls in 2010 if they don’t pass something. I don’t think people will hold that failure against the President in 2012. Especially if he can convince people that it was Congress’ failure and he can do it during his second term.
My hope is that health care reform is signed into law before the end of this year. I also hope that both wars go well, the economy continues to improve, and there is no terrorist attack. That sounds like a good letter to write to Santa. I wonder if I could text it to him?
What prompted this line of thought was an election map of the 1952 election. Ike kicked Adlai Stevenson’s butt that year. When I saw it, I thought to myself that 2012 could turn out to be just the opposite of that map. Take a look for yourself.
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