It’s now 9:30AM in the morning in Iran and the Iranian people are awakening to a nation in which the political landscape, though superficially unchanged, is indeliably altered. Overnight a sensational result has emerged in the Iranian elections for the presidency. Sensational in the magnitude of the result, close to 65% of the vote for the incumbent, firebrand Mahmud Ahmadinejad and a crushing defeat for his opponent Mousavi.
And it’s unlikely to be merely that a populist ‘green revolution’ has been nipped in the bud by the forces of reaction in Iran’s heirarchy, though that in itself is clearly true:
[MARGARET WARNER:] So, you think that the possibility is that you have — you have seen some government interference here?
CLIFF KUPCHAN: I think, so far, not so good. Now, it’s really early, and we don’t know.
But the fear is that the establishment didn’t like what they were seeing.
Margaret Warner – Iran’s Future Unclear Following Presidential Election PBS 12 Jun 09
Yes, interference, with an unprecedented call of the election early for Ahmadinejad, but it isn’t what you think:
MARGARET WARNER: But didn’t this also expose some fissures in the conservative class…
AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.
MARGARET WARNER: … and among the clerics?
AFSHIN MOLAVI: Absolutely.
You know, Ahmadinejad’s challenge to the old-guard revolutionary elite was absolutely very important, because it exposed this rift. Ahmadinejad comes from a second-generation revolutionary elite. They cut their political teeth in the fight against Iraq, whereas the old-guard elite cut their teeth in the fight against the shah.
These two are at each other right now. That is going to have ramifications beyond the election.
Margaret Warner – Iran’s Future Unclear Following Presidential Election PBS 12 Jun 09
As was suggested in a recent diary this election has become a contest for internal power within the oligarchy, which revealed it’s topography in unprecedented ways in the course of the presidential debates. What we appear to be seeing is the passing of power from the old generation to the new generation of conservative revolutionary elites.