Motley Moose – Archive

The list of George W. Bush’s accomplishments is breathtaking.  As we bid him farewell, we should spend some time reflecting on what he has done on our behalf.  

Please feel free to add your memorials in the comments.

You doubtless remember George Bush’s testimonial that he and his administration never stop thinking about ways they, like the terrorists, could hurt America:

(Cross-posted at C4O Democrats.)

America is a place of great dialogue with the free exchange of ideas.  This conversation can lead to great fruitfulness in potential paths that the nation can take.  The Obama-Biden Transition Team is seeking your input about the great issues of the environment and energy.

McCain officially has won Missouri, so all the electoral votes are duly assigned to the two candidates for president.  McCain led Obama by 4,355 votes, and even though there are still 3,159 provisional ballots to canvass, there is no way that Obama can overcome McCain’s lead in the Show Me State.

Let me tell you why I am excited this afternoon.  I was born in Omaha, Nebraska and grew up there the first seven years of my life before my family moved to California.  Omaha is home to a respectable number of liberal Democrats who would no sooner vote for a Republican than play touch football on a freeway during rush hour.  I am living proof of the truth of that statement.  

(Crossposted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Three Blue Guys have run a database of electoral college projections.  Forty-five prognosticators have given their final projections.  I averaged the 45 Obama projections and the 45 McCain projections, and this is the average of how people see it:

Obama 351

McCain 187

All prognosticators among the 45 foresaw an Obama win.

The Wall Street Journal blog describes senior McCain aide, Mark Salter, as “giddy.”  It quote him as saying:

We feel like we’ve been saying all week. We’re well within the margin or on top in all these battlegrounds.  We got a real good shot at catching the guy.”

Gallup Daily has come out at 1:00 PM (ET) throughout the race, but they have released their final view of the race based on the last data they collected:

Registered Voters

Obama 53

McCain 40

The numbers were 52-41 yesterday.  Today’s figure, at 13 points, is stronger for Obama today than yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model

Obama 53

McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 52-43.  McCain loses a point while Obama gains a point in the likely expanded voter model.

Traditional Model

Obama 53

McCain 42

Yesterday’s numbers were 51-43, so the traditional model settles on the same numbers and spread we see in the expanded voter model, that is, Obama at +11.  Gallup observes in this last poll release:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support.

Rasmussen is out this morning with the suggestion that Obama’s lead today is holding firm:

Obama 51

McCain 46

That lead yesterday was one point more narrow, 51-47.  I think that rounding is causing this fluctuation between 46 and 47 in McCain’s number, which means it’s nothing but statistical noise, not real movement.  So what is Rasmussen’s take away observation?

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

The fruitcakes on the right like to tout the number of persuadables left on the ground at this late date, but Rasmussen finds that only 43 percent of McCain’s voters are rock rib, while 47 percent of Obama supporters say there is no way they’re going to tilt the other way.