Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

First trackers of the day

Gallup Daily has come out at 1:00 PM (ET) throughout the race, but they have released their final view of the race based on the last data they collected:

Registered Voters

Obama 53

McCain 40

The numbers were 52-41 yesterday.  Today’s figure, at 13 points, is stronger for Obama today than yesterday.

Likely Expanded Voter Model

Obama 53

McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 52-43.  McCain loses a point while Obama gains a point in the likely expanded voter model.

Traditional Model

Obama 53

McCain 42

Yesterday’s numbers were 51-43, so the traditional model settles on the same numbers and spread we see in the expanded voter model, that is, Obama at +11.  Gallup observes in this last poll release:

The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support.


Rasmussen is out this morning with these numbers:

Obama 52

McCain 46

Those numbers yesterday were 51-46.  This is Rasmussen’s take away observation:

On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern.

Research 2000/Daily Kos, in its next to final poll of the race, reports these numbers:

Obama 51

McCain 45

The numbers yesterday were 51-44.  Daily Kos poll meister DemFromCT notes the steadiness in Obama’s number and observes:

At 50-51, Obama wins. McCain will close but he will not win.

My blog colleague and friend atdnext wrote about Zogby, whose reputations has suffered a great blow in this election because of his show-boat approach to his numbers.  Zogby observes:

Obama 51

McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-44. Zogby opines:

Barack Obama is where he needs to be and John McCain is not. In a multi-candidate race, assuming the minor candidates can win around 2%, 51% can win. Obama holds the groups that he needs and continues to hold a big lead among independents and his base. McCain seems to be holding his base without expanding it or moving into Obama’s territory.

Zogby will release another poll on Tuesday morning.

Hotline sees the race unchanged today from yesterday:

Obama 50

McCain 45


  1. I guess today or tomorrow is probably the last days you’ll be posting these for a while.

    I won’t miss them in some ways. Maybe my nails can regrow.

    But I will miss your regular bulletins DC.

    Thanks for all the hard work, tracking the trackers, you’ve done. Half thinking of refrontpaging your Amazing Campaign diary tonight/tomorrow. Have a look at it and see what you might update

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