Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

First trackers of the day

Rasmussen is out this morning with the suggestion that Obama’s lead today is holding firm:

Obama 51

McCain 46

That lead yesterday was one point more narrow, 51-47.  I think that rounding is causing this fluctuation between 46 and 47 in McCain’s number, which means it’s nothing but statistical noise, not real movement.  So what is Rasmussen’s take away observation?

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

The fruitcakes on the right like to tout the number of persuadables left on the ground at this late date, but Rasmussen finds that only 43 percent of McCain’s voters are rock rib, while 47 percent of Obama supporters say there is no way they’re going to tilt the other way.

Research 2000/Daily Kos also sees Obama extending his lead as we enter the last few days of the campaign:

Obama 51

McCain 44

Daily Kos poll blogger extraordinaire DemFromCT observes:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Wed, +8 Thurs, and +9 Fri with a +5 Tues sample rolling off (rounding can take place.) The Obama video (33.6 million viewers) is reflected today, but not completely until Sunday. The last R2K poll of the election will be published Monday.

The one day numbers were 52-43 with a five point margin of error.  Keep this in mind as we move on to Zogby of the Big Headlines.

Poor Zogby is the crack addict of pollsters.  He has a few days of serious analysis, and then he’s back hitting the pipe like an addict in relapse.  Zogby rolling total released today is:

Obama 49

McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 50-43.  In an analysis that made every Whack Job Heart on the Right skip a beat, Zogby observed:

Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%.

Let’s be clear about this:  R2K numbers for yesterday were 52-43, and Zogby’s were McCain 48, Obama 47.  Let’s be still clearer about this:  Since Zogby started pulling, he never once has had McCain above 45 percent in his rolling total, and as of today, it’s been four days since McCain got to 45.  On the other hand, Zogby has never had Obama below 47, and 47 occurred just one time in the entire time this poll has been in the field, more than three weeks ago.

Hotline Diageo is out this morning, and it shows Obama at over 50 percent.  Blares the headline, “With 72 Hours Left Until Election Day, Obama Leads McCain by Seven Points.”  Here are the results:

Obama 51

McCain 44

Undecided 5

In other words, according to Hotline, McCain could win every single undecided voter and still lose.  Yesterday, the results were 48-41, so both candidates firmed up their numbers by three points each.


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