The Moose is Loose, here we go again! From our national trackers:
Obama 48, McCain 48
Obama 48, McCain 44
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49, McCain 43
Obama 47, McCain 42
Some small movement; as you can see, McCain moved up one to tie Obama in the Rasmussen tracker, and Obama gained some ground in the Diageo tracker. All said, we can see the same trend, with the R2K and Rasmussen trackers flanking each end- Obama’s slightly ahead, nationally.
But this isn’t a popularity contest; we’re in a race to 270 electoral votes. So, how is the election breaking down in Battleground states? Here’s a map showing us current battleground states, thanks to 270towin.com:
So, who’s performing in the tossup states?
Here’s the breakdown
Quinnipiac– Obama 49, McCain 45
Quinnipiac– Obama 48, McCain 44
Quinnipiac– Obama 47, McCain 45
Quinnipiac– Obama 49, McCain 42
ARG– Obama 50, McCain 45
Rasmussen– McCain 51, Obama 46
Rasmussen– Obama 51, McCain 44
Suffolk– McCain 46, Obama 45
Rasmussen– McCain 50, Obama 46
Rasmussen– Obama 48, McCain 45
Rasmussen– McCain 50, Obama 48
Survey USA– Obama 51, McCain 45
PPP– Obama 48, McCain 46
ABC/WaPo– Obama 51, McCain 43
I’ve included polls only a few days old in this sample size; anything more than a week old is nigh on useless. A week, as we all know, is a lifetime in politics. There have also been some interesting new split decisions as well- PPP, headquartered in North Carolina, polled Obama running even there; the University of New Hampshire had McCain as a two-point favorite there; Selzer had a poll out with Obama ahead in Indiana.
But until we get more information, we can only go on the information we have. Let’s clean up this map and push the leaners.
Obama 282, McCain 256
And there we have a win, ladies and gentlemen, and a fairly comfortable one at that, akin to 2004 on the margins. And that without Florida and Ohio, too! This would be the first time since 1960 that’s been accomplished. Of course, this doesn’t mean that we should ignore Ohio or Florida; and neither does it mean we can afford to slack off anywhere on this map. For instance, if we lose Virginia in this equation, we’re back down to a 269 to 269 tie, which Obama would likely win in Congress… but I’d much rather not have to have that sort of win.
It’s also been postulated that Obama’s ground game, which paid off in spades during the Democratic primary, will do so again. Obama has polled, as noted before, surprisingly close in a number of traditionally red states, and a few of the battleground states we threw for McCain (Nevada and New Hampshire), and a few trending-McCain-but-close states (Ohio, and perhaps Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and yes, perhaps even West Virginia) could go Democratic in November. While that would be fantastic, all we have now is circumstantial evidence.
Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?