Motley Moose – Archive

This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The second part, which analyzes New York, can be found here.

Illinois

In November 2010, Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will face off against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, in what looks to be a competitive Senate race. A heavily blue state, Democrats have been hurt by a bad national environment coupled with continuing fall-out from the Rod Blagojevich scandals.

Out of the three states being analyzed (the other two being California and New York), Illinois is the state in which Republicans are strongest. Out of the three, it is also the state with the most competitive forthcoming election. This post will analyze the political contours of the state, and the long and difficult path Mr. Kirk must tread for victory.

With respect to demographics, Illinois is structured very simply. It has three parts: Chicago, its suburban metropolis, and the mostly rural downstate.

To win, Congressman Mark Kirk will need to run a gauntlet of challenges in each of section of the state. He must capitalize on Republican strength downstate, revive it in the suburbs, and hope that Chicago turn-out is depressed. If done properly, this will result in a close-run, Scott-Brown type victory.

More below.

For weeks there has been an emerging story which casts doubt on the validity and provenance of documents used in foreclosure proceedings nationwide:

It is a legal impossibility for someone without a mortgage to be foreclosed upon.  It is a legal impossibility for the wrong house to be foreclosed upon, it is a legal impossibility for the wrong bank to sue for foreclosure.

And yet, all of those things have occurred.  The only way these errors could have occurred is if several people involved in the process committed criminal fraud.  This is not a case of “Well, something slipped through the cracks.” In order for the process to fail, many people along the chain must commit fraud.

Barry Ritholtz – Why Foreclosure Fraud Is So Dangerous to Property Rights The Big Picture 12 Oct 10

The use of the Mortgage Electronic Registration System by the majority of lenders, especially for mortgages securitised and resold to investors, inadequate or concocted documents and imperfect ‘due process’ by unqualified loan officers has created uncertainty regarding the status of mortgage-holders and their standing as plaintiffs at foreclosure:

“If people say that you cannot prove that you own the loan, it could be really cumbersome to untangle,” said [Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital LP], whose firm manages $5.5 billion in investments, mostly mortgage-backed securities.  “It has the potential to spiral into much, much more.  There have been many twists and turns to the foreclosure process since the credit crisis started and this is one more turn of the wheel, and it can spin out of control.”

John Gittelsohn – Securitization Flaws May Lead Investors to Fight Mortgage Deals Bloomberg 14 Oct 10

In spite of the volume of foreclosure actions, 100,000 in the past month alone, the crisis emerging as securitised mortgage documentation is presented in court has led major institutions to declare a self-imposed moratorium on foreclosures, at least for properties ‘held’ by MERS.  

There is more to the problem, however.  The process by which these mortgages were originally transferred to trusts for sale to institutional purchasers is questionable and may be found to be defective, rendering them essentially worthless and exposing the banks who sold them to liability at par with their original value, roughly $1.4 trillion dollars.

From Newest Farkstuff

Been a while since I posted, but given the recent flap with Carl Paladino’s speech on the dysfunction of homosexuals, the flap over the “Ground Zero Mosque” and the upcoming trial of Ahmed Kalfan Ghailani, I thought it was important to remind folks of pledges made some time ago.

It’s very obvious that many of you are upset over conditions in this country and the direction in which we seem to be going. This has led to a natural desire to throw the bums out of office. That attitude is understandable. What is not understandable is the support for the political party that not only promoted the policies that led us into this mess, but also promises to make things worse for most Americans.

Here are eight initiatives the GOP has in store for America.

1) Privatize SS

Privatizing Social Security has been a longtime goal for Republicans. Current GOP elected officials and candidates that have spoken in support of privatizing Social Security include Eric Cantor R-OH, Paul Ryan R-WI, Michelle Bachman R-MN, Sharron Angle, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and others. If their plan had been in effect in 2008 then American seniors would have lost 40% of their retirement savings and income. The savings of younger Americans might have never recovered and they would have been doomed to spend their retirement years in poverty.

2) Eliminate Medicare

In 2009, the Entire Republican Leadership Voted to Turn Medicare into a Voucher Program. In 2009, Republican Leader John Boehner, Republican Whip Eric Cantor, Republican Conference Chair Mike Pence, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions and 133 other Republicans voted to turn Medicare into vouchers that decline in value, ending the program as its presently known. [Roll Call Vote #191, 4/2/09; Associated Press, 4/2/09]  

I confess.

I am a gang member.

I have benefitted from my membership in this gang, all my life.  Everything in my life has come to me easier than it has for most of the planet, because I belong to this gang.  My clothes, food, shelter, luxuries and freedom are the spoils of my membership.  We live a life of ease, gluttony, vanity and waste built on the backs of oppression, deceit and cruelty.

(Posted at SexGenderBody)

While watching television has never been high on my to-do list, I have found a couple of new shows I like. The main one is Detroit 1-8-7. It is a gritty cop show that follows the day-to-day activities of a top Detroit Homicide unit. To-date, four of the scheduled twelve episodes have aired. Critical reception has been mixed. I find it compelling enough to record each week.

The main complaint from the critics is that the show brings nothing new to the genre. While I would agree with that assessment somewhat, I don’t think it is entirely accurate. Few shows have managed to capture the reality of the streets of a city like Detroit. Memphis Beat certainly missed the mark. I’ve lived in the Memphis area and worked in Memphis and the show was a big disappointment. The less said about the realism of Miami Vice, the better. NYPD Blue had a similar gritty realism. However, it is difficult, and perhaps unfair, to compare a new show to arguably the best cop show of all time.

Warning: I’m going full Godwin’s Law right from the start.

During the middle of the 20th Century, the world watched as the German people were led into a disastrous multi-front war. Rational people have struggled to understand how the German public could have been led down the path to war and genocide.  More than sixty years later it is still hard to believe it all happened.

These quotes offer an explanation about how a seemingly rational, modern populace could have descended into such madness.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” – Joseph Goebbels

“It is not truth that matters, but victory” – Adolph Hitler

“The victor will never be asked if he told the truth.” – Adolph Hitler

“Make the lie big, make it simple, keep saying it, and eventually they will believe it” – Adolph Hitler

“Through clever and constant application of propaganda, people can be made to see paradise as hell, and also the other way round, to consider the most wretched sort of life as paradise.” – Adolph Hitler

When I look around at the political climate in this country leading up to the 2010 elections, I am struck by how successfully the GOP has managed to mislead the American populace. I have come to the sad conclusion that the real difference between the Republicans and Democrats can be explained by the quotes above.

The Democrats looked at the disaster of the 1930’s and 40’s and came to the conclusion that we must always be on guard against this happening in America. The GOP looked at the same disaster and saw a road map to electoral success. How else to explain the shouts of socialism, death panels, trickledown economics, or the Iraq war?

What GOP lie of 2010 bugs you the most?

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Over the next few posts I will be previewing a select few competitive Senate elections. These posts will focus less on individual personalities and more on overarching state dynamics – what parts of the state vote Democratic, swing, and vote Republican.

(Posted at SexGenderBody)