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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Tracking polls are tightening

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 50

McCain 47

Other 1

Undecided 2

Rasmussen’s numbers yesterday were 51-46.  Rasmussen’s numbers yesterday were 51-46.  Rasmussen’s explanation of his numbers deserves a read.  Rasmussen observes:

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

 Research 2000/Daily Kos reports this morning:

Obama 50

McCain 44

The numbers yesterday were, that is, 50-43.  Dkos Poll Meister DemFromCT comments:

On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +5 Sunday, +6 Mon, and +5 Tues with a +9 Sat sample rolling off.

Zogby saw a slight decline in both Obama’s and McCain’s numbers and a slight increase in undecideds, but through rounding, McCain’s number (and not Obama’s) this morning takes the hit:

Obama 49

McCain 44

Yesterday, the numbers were 49-45.  Zogby once again denies his burning itch to make headlines and eschews any grand pronouncements about the imminent Apocalypse and the Second Coming of Jesus.  Uncharacteristically humble, Zogby opines:

The race for President of the United States remained essentially frozen in time yesterday, with very little movement just a week to go before Election Day.

Hotline sees the race a little closer this morning, too:

Obama 49

McCain 42

The numbers yesterday were 50-42.


  1. I must admit, my eyes are on the state wide totals – and looking at Obama’s lead increase in Ohio, and remain in double digits in Pennsylvania, I’m not sure how to account for the tracking poll movement. Looks more like statistical noise around a 6 to 7 per cent Obama lead. And lord knows how their models account for early voting. But we shall see. Thanks DC

  2. rfahey22

    With early voting, every day that Obama’s ahead translates into a built-in lead come election day.  Also, people that get agitated about this generally assume that the trends will continue in a straight line through election day.  There’s no reason to believe that that would be the case.  And, frankly, you just have to look at the candidates’ behavior to get a real picture of what is going on.  McCain is bunkered in PA and his staff is openly fighting with Palin’s staff, while Obama continues to campaign in a large number of states and is getting a huge assist from the Clintons.  They have the best data of anyone, and which camp is acting like winners, and which losers?

  3. Charles Fried, a professor at Harvard Law School, has long been one of the most important conservative thinkers in the United States. Under President Reagan, he served, with great distinction, as Solicitor General of the United States. Since then, he has been prominently associated with several Republican leaders and candidates, most recently John McCain, for whom he expressed his enthusiastic support in January.

    This week, Fried announced that he has voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to Trevor Potter, the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he asked that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. In that letter, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision “is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis.”

  4. Reaper0bot0

    Look, this was going to happen.  McCain wasn’t really going to get 44% of the popular vote and every sane person knew that.

    By the way, the only true “undecided” I actually know has decided to go with Obama.  He said McCain’s being too negative.

  5. GrassrootsOrganizer

    This is only anecdotal, but I’ve heard more than a few tales about family members and co-workers, McCain “supporters”, who are openly struggling with their choice — entertaining arguments for Obama while not attempting to justify McCain.

    Someone will have to show me the Obama supporter who’s currently entertaining the idea of voting for John McCain, because all I’m seeing is Obama supporters turning into Obama warriors.

    Just last night I heard one of those stories — a grandparent who has voted Republican for 50 some years AND has for months declared he just couldn’t vote for a black man AND has repeated every Obama smear out there — Muslim, terrorist, tax and spend, anti-American, inexperienced.  Apparently this guy declared last weekend that, while it would be the hardest thing he’ll ever do, he “thinks” he’s going to vote for Obama.  Reason?  “He’s just the better man.”

    I think LOGIC is catching up with many McCain people who just might have their come to Jesus moment on Tuesday.  On the other hand, Obama supporters for the most part are going to walk through flames to deliver their vote without doubt one.    

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