Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Sarah Palin, the next Ross Perot

You heard it here first.

I predict that Sarah Palin will form her own Political party/movement and run as a third party candidate in 2012.

Why not run as a Republican you ask?

Consider how she is being treated by elements within the Republican party currently.

We certainly can dislike her and point to her many (many many many)faults, but as members of the loyal opposition that is our job and she expects it from us. And while she may dislike us back, it is not unexpected.

Yet, the Republicans are near schism over the Palin issue. Some love her, some hate her. One faction goes so far as to say that if you are against Sarah Palin “You are dead to us”. Another faction is calling her a “whack job”.

Much has been written about Palin wanting to head the Republican party, or at least make a run in 2012. Which is not really crazy talk. As bad as her negatives are right now she IS the main draw at political rallies for the Republicans, and she IS a fund raising machine right now.

Yet, I honestly can not see her winning the Republican Primary in 4 years. To do so she would have to engage in multiple debates where many of her past transgressions will surface (can anyone say Alaska Independence Party?) in a way they haven’t this election cycle. The Republican moderates are not going to giver her the nomination, if for no other reason because to many she will be a major reason they lost this year.

The alternative?  She is well liked enough to certain groups and can raise money, and has a history of flirting with 3rd party politics already, so she starts her own party. Something like “The American Conservative Party”. That will draw off a goodly chunk of the social conservatives and cripple the main GOP for 2012.

Indeed, if the Democrats can gain the upper hand amongst fiscal moderates (who like to call themselves fiscal conservatives) there will be only two major groups for the GOP to draw their votes from, Social conservatives and ultra- nationalists. A daunting task to win an election with, and impossible if Palin continues to go rogue.

Palin/Huckabee ACP party 2012. Watch it happen.

Dems in office until at least 2016


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/ 6 Comments

6 comments

  1. Peter Jukes

    …is not only likely ideologically, it’s already happening on the ground.

    Great. A new splinter right wing group, and you can guarantee a generation of Democratic power.

    In the past I would have said that the Centrist Republicans wouldn’t let this happen. But they’ve failed to stop the fundamentalist right wing drift in the last decade.

  2. psychodrew

    I don’t know.  A socially conservative populist party.  If it became a serious force, it could lead to a major political realignment.

    If the GOP splintered into a socially conservative populist party and a socially moderate fiscally conservative party, they could attract Democrats.  Blue collar Democrats throughout the rust belt would gone to the former.  Wealthy moderates would go to the latter.  The Democrats would attract the socially liberal populists.

    I don’t think the US is at a place where this could happen.

  3. rfahey22

    And that it may field the 2012 nominee.  Alternatively, it may be a very wealthy candidate who can self-finance (such as Romney).  The reason I think that is because the Republicans will have to find some way to negate the Democratic turnout and fundraising advantages, and the only short-term solution that I can think of is to run a Jindal/Huckabee/Palin type who could mobilize the Evangelicals, like Bush did in 2004.  

    I agree that Palin would have a difficult time getting nominated in four years, because of the enemies she’s made, her largely unexplored scandals, and the fact that she’s become something of a punchline after only two and a half months in the national spotlight – winning a grueling 50-state nomination contest would be far more difficult, especially with her opponents attacking her at every turn.  However, I am worried about Huckabee, who is likeable, is somewhat populist, and is able to put together coherent sentences.  Huckabee bothers me a lot.  Pair him with an “economic expert” such as Romney and we could be in real trouble in four years.

    As for the fiscal conservatives, some will stick around because it’s their best route to achieve power, while others will defect to us.

  4. sricki

    and far from impossible. Her ego is certainly big enough (god only knows why).

    While I’d like to believe it would enable us to maintain control of the government, I tend to agree with psychodrew that it could reinvent the parties in a way that could end up drawing certain types of voters away from us.

  5. Hollede

    over the republican party. If she fails, she will leave a divided and weakened Republican Party, that may eventualy have a chance to draw independants back. I rather like the idea of Palin going for the head of the party against Romney et al. It should be very distracting for them. Heh. Hopefully for at least four years or so. Eight or more would be just fine as well.

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