Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Final Trackers of the Day

The last tracker of the day is in, but first let me review the one that came in during the early afternoon.  

Gallup Daily has great news:

Registered Voters

Obama 52

McCain 41

This is the same set of numbers Gallup found yesterday.

Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)

Obama 52

McCain 42

Yesterday, the expanded likely voter model showed a 52-43 spread, so McCain dropped another point.  Yesterday’s nine-point spread in this model is now a 10-point spread.

Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)

Obama 51

McCain 44

Yesterday, the traditional model showed only a five-point split, 50-45; it’s now opened a seven-point spread, much the same as we are seeing in other models, which makes me wonder if they are applying a traditional model to their data, a practice not supported by reports of early voting activity which seem to suggest Obama enjoys a substantial lead in early voting.

The Washington Post shows Obama lead by nine points (±3%):

Obama 53%

McCain 44%

These are the same numbers from yesterday.

So this is the summary from the day:

Rasmussen, Obama +4

Hotline, Obama +6

Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +8

Zogby, Obama +8

Washington Post/ABC, Obama +9

Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +10

Talking Points Memo comments:

Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-43.1%, a lead of 7.4 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday, when the ABC/WaPo numbers are included in yesterday’s total.

In other words, Obama increased his lead by 0.6 from yesterday.


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