The last tracker of the day is in, but first let me review the one that came in during the early afternoon.
Gallup Daily has great news:
This is the same set of numbers Gallup found yesterday.
Expanded Likely Voter Model (Intent to vote)
Yesterday, the expanded likely voter model showed a 52-43 spread, so McCain dropped another point. Yesterday’s nine-point spread in this model is now a 10-point spread.
Traditional Likely Voter Model (Intent and past behavior)
Yesterday, the traditional model showed only a five-point split, 50-45; it’s now opened a seven-point spread, much the same as we are seeing in other models, which makes me wonder if they are applying a traditional model to their data, a practice not supported by reports of early voting activity which seem to suggest Obama enjoys a substantial lead in early voting.
The Washington Post shows Obama lead by nine points (±3%):
These are the same numbers from yesterday.
So this is the summary from the day:
Rasmussen, Obama +4
Hotline, Obama +6
Research 2000/Daily Kos, Obama +8
Zogby, Obama +8
Washington Post/ABC, Obama +9
Gallup Expanded Likely Voter Model, Obama +10
Talking Points Memo comments:
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.5%-43.1%, a lead of 7.4 points, compared to the 50.5%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday, when the ABC/WaPo numbers are included in yesterday’s total.
In other words, Obama increased his lead by 0.6 from yesterday.