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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Average Projections of Electoral College on October 14

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes.

Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 82 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College.  Twenty-four of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, October 14.  Of those 24 sites, all gave Obama a large advantage; only one, Marc Ambinder, gave Obama less than the 270 electoral votes he needs in the Electoral College; and 21, including Karl Rove, gave Obama more than 300 electoral votes.  (Rove’s analysis of the Electoral College gives Obama 313 electoral votes, McCain 174, and includes 51 toss-up votes.)  The average Electoral College projections for the 24 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:

Obama 363.5

McCain 179.4

Eleven of the 24 sites included estimates of toss-ups in their projections.  Those 11 sites had an average 51.7 toss-up electoral votes.

Three weeks ago, I conducted a similar analysis of data from September 23 from 3 Blue Dudes.  In the last three weeks, Obama has increased his average number of Electoral Votes as predicted on updated projection sites on the Internet by more than one-third (38.5%) and McCain’s numbers have diminished by nearly one quarter (23.6%).  These numbers may suggest that Obama’s surge in the Electoral College not only reflects the movement of toss-up but also McCain states into his column during the last three weeks.

(You will note that the electoral votes in the above averages do not add up to 538.  It reflects the fact that I did not do an analysis of just the 13 sites that allocate all electoral votes; 11 sites do various things with toss-ups.  I was aware of this problem, but I decided it wasn’t important enough to do averages for the 13 sites and allocate all 538 votes to either McCain or Obama.)

For those of you who worry that we are going to get overconfident of victory, work hard to secure our victory on November 4.  For those of you who are confident of victory, work hard to make it a landslide on November 4.


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/ 18 Comments

18 comments

  2. GrassrootsOrganizer

    I’m still scared shitless.  Not because I have any plausible reason but because I have no Plan B.  Move to Canada?  That’s all I’ve got right now.  I truly couldn’t survive it.  four more years of Sarah Palin?  I’d gnaw off my own leg to get accross the border.  

    I couldn’t come out from under the furniture for two days back in 2004.  Couldn’t take phone calls, couldn’t eat, couldn’t work.  And I couldn’t STAND John Kerry and had no faith in him.

    This is different.  If they steal this election from Obama or the voters don’t show faith in intellect over mediocrity for fucking once or if the youth don’t turn out — I swear I’ll have to cash it in, give up the fight and go live on some lizard infested island in the South Pacific to paint kittens on coconuts.  

    I realize this fear is irrational given where we are at.  I also know it doesn’t fortell anything.  I also know fear and excitement feel the same, they just have different labels.  

    I’m still scared shitless.  

  3. sricki

    but part of me can’t help thinking it’s going to be an outright crushing. Finally started making calls for Obama yesterday — got decent responses in Florida. Seems so strange to advocate for him when I spent so much time trying to convince people that Hillary was the better choice. And yet, surprisingly, I slipped into the role with remarkable ease. Will be making a lot of calls this weekend, hoping to catch more people at home.

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