Rasmussen continues to show Obama over 50 percent and the race essentially remaining in the same position it has been in for the last two weeks:
The range yesterday was 52-44, so there was a slight narrowing in the race, the same as we see in the Research 2000/Daily Kos numbers:
Yesterday’s numbers were 52-41. Last night’s numbers do not reflect perspectives on the debate. We’ll have to wait till Saturday before we have a complete sense of whether the debate moved anyone to one camp or the other.
Zogby Tracker sees only a two point race:
GWU/Battleground sees a four point race:
Diageo Hotline reports the closest race we have had in quite a while:
Meanwhile, Gallup Daily is reporting an Obama lead as expansive as the one we have been seeing in Research 2000/Daily Kos. Though R2K today reported a 10-point Obama lead, Gallup is reporting an eleven point lead:
Nate Silver at 538.com observes,
Although some of the other tracking polls — like Diageo/Hotline and the brand new Reuters/Zogby poll — show tighter race the Gallup and Rasmussen polls have by far the largest sample sizes, and so tend to get the most emphasis in (my) model.
So to recap for October 8, we’re all over the map:
Gallup Obama, +11
R2K Obama, +10
Rasmussen Obama, +6
GWU/Battleground Obama, +4
Reuters/Zogby Obama, +2
Diageo Hotline Obama, +1