Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Average View of the Electoral College on September 22

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes.  Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 84 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College.  Twenty-one of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, September 22.  Of those 21 sites, 17 gave Obama the advantage in the Electoral College, two gave the advantage to McCain, and two projected a tie.  Neither of the sites that saw an advantage for McCain projected he had enough electoral votes to claim the presidency: just that he had an advantage among the states they felt they could project.  The average Electoral College projections for the 21 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:

Obama 262.5

McCain 234.8

Ten of the 21 sites included estimates of toss-ups in their projections.  Those 10 sites had an average 83.7 toss-up electoral votes.

Among the 11 sites that did not include a toss-up category, nine saw an outright Obama victory, and two saw a tie between the Democratic and Republican nominees. Among these 11 sites, the average of the Electoral College estimates were:

Obama 280.5

McCain 257.5

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