So the republican bounce in MN never materialized. Why can I say that with such conviction, because SUSA, who has had really odd polling of MN lately has shown Franken down only 1 (41-40). When you combine that with the Presidental polling during the RNC that showed Obama up 13% then it would seem that MN is going to add another 4 years to its streak
Now if you don’t know about the history of SUSA polling this cycle in MN this year I’ll give you some feed back. SUSA has been sponsored by KSTP which is a very republican leaning organization (owned by the Hubbards). There polling of this race and of the Presidental race has been far more favorable for the republicans.
One big reason for Al’s being so close is that the Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley is drawing 14%. Based on Barkley’s reputation (and the state of the polls earlier) Barkley is drawing more Norm voters than Al voters.
KSTP isn’t releasing any data yet on the poll so I can’t break it down. But given how SUSA polls have been including a larger sampling of republicans then previously as shown by states like NC. Therefore for Al to tie is quite remarkable.
Polling within the past month has shown
Franken-Coleman-Barkley
41-40-8 (MPR)
45-45-X (RR)
Add today’s result in and the recent data points to a dead heat. Let me say that the republican ground game is muted here so if Al can keep up the momentum then he is likely to be the Jr. Senator from MN.
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