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republican debate 2012

Open Horserace Thread: Ames Update

Well…  It’s on.  Ames straw poll on Saturday, the first genuine debate today.  The Republican primary is off and away.  Eight or nine competitors starting late need to shake up the field in short order and pick a few leaders, the money is waiting to see who comes out of the starting blocks in front.  Who’s it going to be?:


The contest for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, until now a sleepy, shapeless and uninspired affair punctuated by comedic interludes, turns serious this month. A debate, a straw poll in Iowa and the possible entry into the race of Texas Gov. Rick Perry are likely to make the coming weeks the most consequential yet in the campaign.

By the end of August, more will be known about almost every aspect of the race, including the identity of the politician best positioned to challenge the front-runner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the staying power of Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and the likely final makeup of the field.

Dan Balz – August will shake the 2012 Republican presidential field Washington Post 7 Aug 11

Is our pool still open?  Time to pick a winner folks.  Update: Ames straw poll results just in:


@FixAaron: Results: Bachmann 4823, Paul 4671, Pawlenty 2293, Santorum 1657, Cain 1456, Romney 567, Gingrich 385, Huntsman 69, McCotter 35 #iastrawpoll

If nothing else surely the end of any reasonable speculation of Palin’s candidacy.  Bachmann beat Pawlenty 2:1, that’s got to be a problem for his campaign.