This quick diary is for the junkies among us – all night tonight, PPP will be releasing polls in various battleground states (North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Virginia). They are releasing them in the order of demand from liberal bloggers – they just released Virginia, with Pennsylvania up next.
The polls seem to include a lot of good news for us. Although PPP’s last poll of Virginia reflected a 9-point lead for Obama, a 6-point lead with one day to go is still pretty damn good, and Obama did not lose any support (the last poll was 52-43 in Obama’s favor).
Obama’s lead is down from 52-43 last week, an indication that undecided voters might be
moving toward John McCain. Nonetheless Obama is holding strong over the 50% mark.Obama is winning more Republican voters (13%) than McCain is Democratic voters
(9%). Obama is also holding a slight lead with independents, 49-47.Obama has held tight at 42% of the white vote since last week. McCain’s share has
increased from 53% to 56%. That’s not going to be good enough for him given the 20%
black portion of the electorate, and Obama’s 91-9 lead within that group.…
Obama is winning every age group except senior citizens and leads with both male and
female voters.
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
If anyone stays up late enough to see their other results, feel free to add them in the comments.
Update
Their poll results for Pennsylvania are 53-45, Obama.
Barack Obama’s lead in the Keystone State has decreased from the consensus several weeks ago that he had a double digit advantage but he nevertheless is in great shape to take the state with an eight point lead and almost nobody undecided.
Obama has a commanding 56-38 lead with independent voters in the state. As he is in many swing states, Obama is actually carrying more Republican voters (16%) than John McCain is Democratic voters (15%), perhaps surprising in a state where Hillary Clinton won the primary in a walk.
Obama is trailing McCain only 50-48 among white voters. In a state with a black population over 10% that level of competitiveness is more than enough to give him a strong overall lead when you factor in his 90% + support from African American voters.
http://publicpolicypolling.blo…
Update 2
PPP shows Obama with a 2-point lead in Ohio, down from a 7-point lead, though again his numbers are virtually unchanged (he went from 51% in the prior poll to 50% in this poll).
The bad news:
His lead in the state is down from seven points in a PPP survey a week and a half ago to now just two.
He is losing ground among white voters. Last week he trailed just 49-46. Now it’s 55-43.
Undecided independents seem to be moving in McCain’s direction. Last week Obama was up 48-36 with that group, now it’s 49-46.
The good news:
Even though Obama’s margin has gone down a good bit, his actual standing is pretty much the same as last week. There is little fundamental difference between 50% and 51%.
He’s banked a huge lead with early voters, who made up about 30% of the sample. He’s up 65-34 with those folks. McCain’s tightening the race to two points is predicated on his winning election day voters 54-44.
13 comments