Motley Moose – Archive

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

You can tell a lot about candidates’ internal polling, which at this point surely involves knowledge of early polling results, by where their campaigns are sending them during the last days of the campaign.  

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51

McCain 47

McCain’s number in the Rasmussen poll has gone from 47-46-47 on three successive days. The phenomenon well might be an artifact of rounding with a fraction of a point explaining the fluctuation across the three days.  Rasmussen observes:

McCain has been solidifying support, (but) Obama has not lost ground.  This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Fox News is out with a new poll that shows the race tightening:

Obama 47

McCain 44

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51

McCain 46

Rasmussen’s numbers yesterday were Obama 50, McCain 47, Others 1, and Undecided 2.  Rasmussen observes:

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch.

Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 50

McCain 47

Other 1

Undecided 2

Rasmussen’s numbers yesterday were 51-46.  Rasmussen’s numbers yesterday were 51-46.  Rasmussen’s explanation of his numbers deserves a read.  Rasmussen observes:

Among those who “always” vote in general elections, Obama leads by just a single point. Obama does better among more casual voters. However, among those with a high degree of interest in this year’s campaign, Obama leads by four. Among those who say they are following the race closely on a daily basis, Obama leads by five.

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

As for those who have not yet voted but are “certain” they will do so, the race is tied at 48%. Two percent (2%) of these “certain” voters plan to vote for a third party option while 2% say they are undecided.

The Daily Telegraph reports that senior Republicans believe we are on the precipice of an epic election:

Aides to George W.Bush, former Reagan White House staff and friends of John McCain have all told The Sunday Telegraph that they not only expect to lose on November 4, but also believe that Mr Obama is poised to win a crushing mandate.

The article goes on to suggest that they anticipate the election will provide Obama more political capital to remake the political landscape than Ronald Reagan enjoyed after the 1980 election.  

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

One week from now, we will decide the thing for once and for all.  Word came yesterday that the the RNC has bought advertising time in Montana in an effort to win its three electoral votes for John McCain.  The last Democrat to win in Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992 when Ross Perot was on the ballot.  This year, Ron Paul is on Montana’s ballot.

(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

Electoral Vote.com today compares trends in the Electoral College during the 2004 cycle to trends in the Electoral College during the 2008 cycle.  The comparison suggests that neither Bush nor Kerry dominated the Electoral College projections in 2004 the way that Obama has dominated them this year.

All three morning trackers suggest that a week out from the national election, the polls have tightened.  Rasmussen reports this morning:

Obama 51

McCain 46

The numbers couple of days have been at Rasmussen’s year-long high, 52-45.  Rasmussen observes:

Obama’s five-point advantage is down from an eight-point lead yesterday but up a point from the lead he held a week ago. With today’s results, Obama has been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 32 straight days

The Anchorage Daily News has endorsed Barack Obama for president.  The paper acknowledges that after 50 years of statehood, Alaska for the first time has put forward a serious candidate for national office and calls Palin’s nomination for vice president “a signal event” in the state’s history.