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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

There is No Right Answer on Syria

Chemical weapons are a terrible thing.  I disagree with the assertion that dead is dead.  They are a torturous method of killing innocent civilians.  They cause civilians to die a gruesome and slow death.  Those that survive are permanently disfigured.  With conventional weapons, yes, they leave the person dead, but they tend to be considerably quicker in bringing about that death.

In the modern era of warfare, militaries can effectively protect soldiers against their use.  That leaves them as nothing more than a weapon of civilian murder – a weapon that kills slowly and gruesomely.  A strong moral argument exists that when such weapons are used, the world has a responsibility to take those actions necessary to prevent their further use and punish the perpetrators.  This can include military action.

At the same time, war is war and we should not enter it without serious discussion (the exception being in response to a military attack; think Pearl Harbor and us declaring war on Japan the next day).  What happened with the Iraq war represented a severe failure of this process and we cannot afford a repeat of that hear.  We need to see the evidence put out there.  We need to have the discussion.  We need to enter this with our eyes open.  Remember, even limited strikes put our men and women in uniform in the line of danger and cost us money in a time when we really don’t have the money to spare – especially on another war.

Now let me add another wrinkle to the mix:  the rebels themselves.  They’re a disparate group with competing ideologies and beliefs.  The only thing they agree on is the fact that Assad must go.  One of the strongest groups is nothing more than al-Qaeda’s affiliate.  If Assad does go, then we could find ourselves with an al-Qaeda run state in the Middle East and bordering, or close to, several key strategic allies in the region (Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia).  Simply put, as horrible as Assad is, he might well be significantly better than the alternative.

If we do attack Assad, and he comes to believe that we are aiming for regime change and not merely inhibiting his use of chemical weapons, he may decide it is time to use it or lose it.  His allies in Hezbollah might come to the same decision as well.  That could mean gas and rocket attacks on Israel in an attempt to divert attention from what he has done to his own people and to try and unite the Arab world by making it a fight against Israel.  In such circumstances Israel would respond with massive firepower, as pretty much any other nation would do given those conditions.  The result?  We might now be facing a general Middle East war.

However, it comes back to the fact that Assad used chemical weapons.  It was a previously stated red line.  It was directed at civilians.  The man is a brutal dictator.  He has no moral claim on power.  The only place he should be is a prison cell, which would be nothing more than a waiting area on his way to hell.

My point is that I don’t think there really is a right answer.  Every answer has the possibility of disastrous consequences.  If we intervene, it could literally blow up in our faces.  If we fail to intervene, we signal to Assad that he can continue to gas his own people and kill as many of them as necessary to cling to his power.  Those who say there are easy answers – whether it is to bomb Syria or to sit on our hands and do nothing – are lying, naive or both.


8 comments

  1. bubbanomics

    Hard to see what the “least wrong answer” could be.

    Let’s suppose, for the sake of argument, that Assad is guilty of using chemical weapons (CW).  It would be nice to verify that before implementing the least wrong answer.

    Still… what is the question?

    (1) How do we send a message to others who would use CW that they should not do it?

    (2) How do we discourage Assad from continuing CW use?

    (3) How do we punish Assad for having done it?

    Your diary suggests other questions more closely related to the war itself.

    (4) Do we remove the gov’t and leave things to settle out?

    (5) Do we pick a winner among rebel groups?

    The President seems focused, based on yesterday’s remarks, on (1).  Lobbing a few cruise missiles is to me the wrong answer.

    Cokie Roberts claimed this morning on NPR that the presser yesterday showed Obama “changed his mind.”  He was ready to act when the UK voted no and other allies lost interest.  That assumes facts not in evidence, to me.  This may very well be the toughest call of his presidency.

  2. Rashaverak

    then to me, the situation is reminiscent of how the League of Nations dealt with the Abyssinia Crisis, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A

    Does International Law stand for anything?  Does a flagrant violation of International Law, if proven, carry any consequences other than Sternly Worded Resolutions?

    The ultimate outcome of the Syrian Civil War could pose many difficulties.  The situation in Egypt is less than heartening.

    There may be no right answer in Syria.

  3. bfitzinAR

    is going to do nothing except maybe make Assad giggle that we’re killing his people for him.  Blowing up Syrians is not even slapping Assad on the wrist – it’s pretty much rewarding him.  Tell me something we’re supposed to do about Assad.  Himself.  The guy who’s doing the evil.  Accuse him of crimes against humanity, send in Special Forces to haul him out and bring him before the World Court.  Or try him in absentia and if found guilty, send in Special Forces to take him out.  Find where the chemical weapons are located and destroy them if it’s possible without essentially detonating them.  Do something about the situation.  “Lobbing a few rockets” doesn’t hurt Assad, won’t stop Assad – but will kill a bunch of civilians who already have his targets on their backs.  Maybe if the media carried more pictures of little kid body parts America would get the point.  You can’t stop an evil dictator from killing, abusing, or torturing his own people by killing some more of his own people.  But you sure as hell start a war, give him an excuse to bomb our embassies, make one more recruiting poster for the anti-Americans when you bomb them.

  4. creamer

    Or China in Mongolia?

     The hawks on the right are going to push for a bigger, more extended strike. McCain wants the rebels to win, seemingly oblivious to the composition of the rebel forces.

    All the while the tea party really doesn’t want to be involved at all.

      The left is caught up in “not my problem” and not wanting to look weak in foreign policy.

      The center is all caught up in precedents,(and not wanting to look weak).

      Kerry very passionately talks of stopping the slaughter, a worthy goal. The problem with that might be the 90,000 plus who are dead from conventional weapons.

      Short of Russia stepping up and pushing Assaad to a cease-fire its hard to see this ending well. (And who steps in and convinces the rebel’s to a cease-fire?)

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