Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

The Quiet Hours: An Interim Open Thread

It is summer, effectively. School is out, the sun shines, vacations and family and time outdoors occupy more than the normal amount of horizon.

Those following politics and the media closely are developing strong feelings about the election coming in November. Those (like myself) enjoined in other topics let those issues stew for later contemplation.

The Republican party and its supporters are on the warpath to retake the White House, the Democrats laying defenses to keep it. As the Out party the GOP is motivated, as the In party the Dems are perhaps more contented.

Which way will the wind blow come the end of summer, oh progosticative Moose?


  1. Optimistic:  The Supremes uphold ObamaCare.  Europe muddles through succeeding crises without imploding the world economy.  The U.S. economy/job markets make modest but continuing gains.  The President is re-elected comfortably, and the Democrats hang onto the Senate while clawing back some House seats (Enough to flip it?  Dunno).  The next four years will see some rents in the Great Wall of Implacable Opposition as the GOP descends into bloody internecine warfare.

    Meh:  The Supremes uphold the popular stuff but strike down the mandate; chaos ensues in the health insurance industry.  Europe staggers from crisis to crisis, never quite collapsing but dragging the world economy closer to the edge of another widescale recession.  The American economy stutters; job growth flattens to just holding on.  Obama squeaks out a win but the Democrats can’t get back the House and the Senate flips to the GOP.  Look ahead to another four years of total gridlock in Washington as the U.S. drifts onward in its slow slide toward Gilded Age levels of poverty and wealth distribution.

    Pessimistic:  The Supremes strike down all of ObamaCare.  As the GOP dance on its corpse (while offering nothing to deal with the ensuing chaos in the health insurance markets), Europe falls apart and the world falls with it into Great Recession 2.0.  Romney’s victory is assured when terrorists pull off a bold stroke shortly before the election; Congress goes powerfully red and goes wildly, enthusiastically to work dismantling every aspect of the social safety net so painfully assembled since FDR.  Romney happily signs off on every far-right wet-dream law Congress puts on his desk, while the Dominionists plot out their next steps toward total control of the country.

    And I clean my guns and wonder when the red tide will lap over the fading-blue Bay State.

    How’s that?

  2. rfahey22

    Obama will win by between 2 and 6 points nationally, EVs will be about 290.  The Supreme Court will probably strike down the mandate despite decades of precedent indicating that it is constitutional; where that takes healthcare I have no idea.  

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