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Martyrs’ Eyes: Election in Iran

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Friday, 2 March 2012 the Iranian parliamentary elections take place, but unlike 2009 the reform movement is not taking part.  It is a contest among conservatives and this time around Ahmadinejad is taking on the Supreme Leader and the clerics:


The real competition in this election is among the so-called principalists – the various conservative forces that have fought so fiercely to control Iran’s government.

In that context, some see this election as fundamentally a fight between supporters of President Ahmadinejad and loyalists of the Supreme Leader.

“There is an attempt to rally people around the Ahmadinejad faction,” says Hashemi, the analyst at the University of Denver. “And one of the things that the Ahmadinejad faction has been doing is to try and play off of the peoples’ general antipathy toward clerical rule.”

Mike Schuster – In Iran’s Election, Not All Candidates Are Welcome NPR 1 Mar 12

Yeah, that’s right, this time Ahmadinejad is the moderate.

Basically Ahmadinejad’s slow accretion of power as president just isn’t working any longer for the clerics and while they need a populist figurehead they would prefer he didn’t have too many notions of his own for ruling the country.  Discredited by defeat of his faction in a popular vote, however, he would make a convenient scapegoat for the mismanagement of relations with the West and ensuing economic difficulties:


At the Valiasr roundabout in downtown Tehran, large posters display pictures of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan, a nuclear scientist who was killed in a bombing in Tehran in January. “The martyrs’ eyes are on your vote,” the posters say. Iran has accused Israel and the U.S. of targeting nuclear scientists, at least four of whom have been killed in recent years, to halt the country’s technological progress. The U.S. denied involvement and Israel declined to comment.

Concern that sanctions may destabilize Iran’s economy led to a run on the currency that caused the rial to lose half its value on unofficial markets, as Iranians rushed to buy foreign currencies to protect their savings.

Ladane Nasseri – Iranians Vote in Parliamentary Election Bloomberg 1 Mar 12

While the outcome of this crucial election has clearly forestalled any significant outcomes in relations with the West in recent weeks the question remains how they will be affected:


“Ahmadinejad has benefited from his populist, radical line internationally,” he said. “Anti-Israel, anti-West and fairly belligerent.”

“However it’s worth just noting on the nuclear issue, it was Ahmadinejad who tried to look for compromise or was open to compromise in 2009 when nuclear negotiations were at their peak,” [Shashank Joshi, an analyst with the London-based Royal United Services Institute] said.

Henry Ridgwell – Iran Elections Pose Challenge Amid Economic Crisis VoA 1 Mar 12

Worth keeping an eye on the results.  With Iran shaping up to be the biggest international issue in the run-up to the American presidential campaign the outcomes could have significant impacts.  Ahmadinejad’s term ends in 2013 in any case; but without a strong base of support in the Iranian parliament his remaining influence could easily evaporate, leaving the clerics and Supreme Leader Khomenei in direct control but with a diminished buffer against domestic public opinion.  And difficult choices to make.


Categories: Uncategorized.

/ 28 Comments

28 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    Has been playing hardball with the system for some time:


    In his second term, Ahmadinejad has gradually tried to extend his influence into the domain of the ruling clerics, such as foreign policy and intelligence gathering. Ahmadinejad is in his second four-year term, the maximum under Iran’s term limits.

    A serious rupture occurred in April when Ahmadinejad boycotted government meetings for more than a week after Khamenei ordered the reinstate the intelligence minister, Heidar Moslehi, who had been dismissed by Ahmadinejad.

    In retaliation, dozens of Ahmadinejad aides were arrested or driven into the political margins. Hard-line media also began to smear Ahmadinejad’s protege, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, as head of a “deviant current” that sought to undermine Islamic rule.

    The tensions grew so bitter that Khamenei suggested that Iran could someday abandon the presidency and return to a government selected from among parliament.

    Hamid Reza Shokouhi, a political writer for pro-reform Mardomsalari daily, predicted Ahmadinejad’s opponents should make significant gains. “And criticism will mount” toward Ahmadinejad from foes such as Larijani and his brother-in-law Ali Mottahari, who are both expected to coast to victories.

    Nasser Karimi and Brian Murphy – Iran Elections 2012: Everything You Need To Know On Upcoming Parliamentary Vote Huffington Post 1 Mar 12

    If Ahmadinejad gets nobbled it would put the policy spotlight back on the theocrats just when they are facing increasing pressure on the domestic economy.  Up to now the nuclear issue has been a populist winner for Ahmadinejad; it will be interesting to see how that evolves, especially if Ahmadinejad is dealt the political humiliation some of the clerics clearly intend.

  2. fogiv

    President Barack Obama warned that he is not bluffing about attacking Iran if it builds a nuclear weapon, but in an interview published Friday, Obama also cautioned U.S. ally Israel that a premature attack on Iran would do more harm than good.

    In his most expansive remarks on the issue thus far, Obama told The Atlantic magazine that Iran and Israel both understand that “a military component” is among a mix of many options for dealing with Iran, along with sanctions and diplomacy. That is the most direct threat he has issued during months of escalating tension with Iran over its disputed nuclear development program.

    http://news.yahoo.com/intervie…

  4. Shaun Appleby

    For quite some time:


    The polling stations closed at 11:00 p.m. local time on Friday after Iranian election officials extended voting for the ninth parliamentary election, which was originally scheduled to end at 6:00 p.m.

    Afterwards, Election Headquarters director Seyyed Solat Mortazavi said the results would be announced in 48 to 72 hours.

    Polls close in Iran, vote count begins Press TV 2 Mar 12

    And an interesting anecdotal insight:


    Vahid Lavasani, a 34-year-old shopkeeper voting with his elderly mother, said: “I want the Majlis [parliament] to resolve the economic issues and improve our relationship with the West. I also want them to rein in the president, so the country is united.”

    Polls close in Iran’s legislative elections Al Jazeera 2 Mar 12

    Hard to tell the good guys from the bad guys over there at the moment?

  5. HappyinVT

    Iranian version of “13 Days in October?”  I’m not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling here.  The mutual lack of trust isn’t helpful and with all the countervailing interests of major players it seems hard to know what’s the best course of action except I’d say war with Iran ain’t it.

    I think I’d like to go stick my head in the sand now.

  7. Shaun Appleby

    Republicans are idiots:


    Oil fell the most since December as President Barack Obama said a pre-emptive strike on Iran might generate “sympathy” for the Persian Gulf country, easing concern that an attack would take place.

    Prices fell as much as 2.8 percent after Obama said in an interview with The Atlantic magazine that a strike without warning might allow Iran to portray itself as a victim. Futures also declined as the dollar rose before reports next week that may show U.S. economic growth.

    Oil declines as Obama reduces Iran tension BLoomberg via Financial Post 2 Mar 12

    Sheesh.  And their candidates all want to bomb Iran the day after inauguration.  But gas prices are Obama’s fault.  We are having a bad case of the stupid.

  8. Shaun Appleby

    Getting some pretty credible reports that all didn’t go quite going according to plan:


    Many video clips have been posted online that show totally deserted polling stations around Iran. See here for one in Karaj, and here for one in Isfahan. A collection of such clips is available here.

    Reactionary cleric Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, the leader of Jebheh Paaydaari-e Enghelab-e Eslami (JPEE), one of the primary hardline groups competing in the elections, traveled to Tehran from Qom and voted in a housing complex that belongs to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Farhad Jafari, a supporter of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and author of the book Cafe Piano, expressed his gratitude to those supporters of the president who boycotted the elections. “I would like to thank those, who in defense of the rights and freedom of the Iranian people, and as a reaction to the ruling’s group insistence to repeat the wrongdoings of the past three decades, some of which are glaringly obvious in the unfree and unfair elections of March 2…declared explicitly that they would not vote,” Jafari wrote.

    Muhammed Sahami, Dan Geist, Tehran Bureau Staff, and Correspondents – Live Blog: Parliamentary Elections Tehran Bureau 3 Mar 12

    There are also numerous reports of journalists taken around to Potemkin polling places.  The leadership predicted a 65% turnout and reports a 64.8% turnout; fancy that.  And yet it seems that the leadership in Iran is facing a serious decline in relevance and support:


    I visited the same polling station four times today and each time there were maybe ten to twenty people voting. The first time I walked in two Basij types were hanging out outside and I said, “Khalvatte” [It’s deserted]. And the response was, “Az enghelab khaste shodan” [They are tired of revolution]. But more telling was the reaction of people who clearly did not bother to vote and mocked the whole thing.

    And I think the regime has lost the hearts and minds of a majority of the population and it’s just a question of time before it falls apart. When a very religious seyyed, aged 33, says to me that the Islam they are preaching is not Islam, you know they have lost their base.

    One thing is for certain: things are going to get much worse (mostly economic) over the next six months and it could get really ugly if Israel does bomb, which would be a huge mistake because this regime is on its last legs, and one thing that would save it would be a military strike.

    Muhammed Sahami, Dan Geist, Tehran Bureau Staff, and Correspondents – Live Blog: Parliamentary Elections Tehran Bureau 3 Mar 12

    Seems about right to me.  Let’s hope cooler heads prevail.

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