John McCain has 12 news cycles to grab the attention and momentum from Barack Obama.
Or, does he?
The following is a wholly subjective break down of the news cycle for the next 12 days.
4 days are weekends, I would count weekend days as half news cycles as people are only marginally paying attention then… so
-2 days 10 days left
2 weekday (guessing) of world series, people distracted
-.5 per day = 9 days left
Conservatively 3 days to Obama for his 1/2 hour media buy next week (one day prior, the day, one day post)
-3 days, 6 days left
Conservatively one day lost for a Palin story, she’s bound for at least one.
-1, 5 days
If the Stevens case comes back guilty that will dominate for a day
-1, 4 days
today is near done so scratch it off
-1, 3 days
Some events will double up, so give McCain +1 day
So, by my ‘out the butt’ estimation, McCain has 4 news cycles in the next 12 to make any significant move. And they aren’t even 4 consecutive days. The only absolutely clear days I see are tomorrow, next Tuesday, next Friday and the following Monday.
People keep saying “A month is an eternity in politics…. 3 weeks is an eternity in politics… 2 weeks is an eternity in politics” and I’m sure we will hear “A week is an eternity in politics”, but McCain is looking at fewer and fewer chances and dare I say the eternity is gone? 11 1/2 days is not an eternity and the only thing that will change it is the live boy/dead girl scenario.
And yeah.. complacence kills, etc. But, no one is complacent, they are fired up.
The absolute shocker is, if Obama outperforms by 3-5%, which is a long shot but not impossible, we may look at a 400+ EC win. GA, ND, MT, WV, IN are possible wins, and MS, SD and AZ (yes AZ) are going to be closer than McCain likes.
I would be content with a 270 win, I would be catatonic with a 424 win, somewhere between that is the likely outcome