Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

12 News Cycles

John McCain has 12 news cycles to grab the attention and momentum from Barack Obama.

Or, does he?

The following is a wholly subjective break down of the news cycle for the next 12 days.

4 days are weekends, I would count weekend days as half news cycles as people are only marginally paying attention then… so

-2 days 10 days left

2 weekday (guessing) of world series, people distracted

-.5 per day = 9 days left

Conservatively 3 days to Obama for his 1/2 hour media buy next week (one day prior, the day, one day post)

-3 days, 6 days left

Conservatively one day lost for a Palin story, she’s bound for at least one.

-1, 5 days

If the Stevens case comes back guilty that will dominate for a day

-1, 4 days

today is near done so scratch it off

-1, 3 days

Some events will double up, so give McCain +1 day

So, by my ‘out the butt’ estimation, McCain has 4 news cycles in the next 12 to make any significant move. And they aren’t even 4 consecutive days. The only absolutely clear days I see are tomorrow, next Tuesday, next Friday and the following Monday.

People keep saying “A month is an eternity in politics…. 3 weeks is an eternity in politics… 2 weeks is an eternity in politics” and I’m sure we will hear “A week is an eternity in politics”, but McCain is looking at fewer and fewer chances and dare I say the eternity is gone? 11 1/2 days is not an eternity and the only thing that will change it is the live boy/dead girl scenario.

And yeah.. complacence kills, etc. But, no one is complacent, they are fired up.

The absolute shocker is, if Obama outperforms by 3-5%, which is a long shot but not impossible, we may look at a 400+ EC win. GA, ND, MT, WV, IN are possible wins, and MS, SD and AZ (yes AZ) are going to be closer than McCain likes.

I would be content with a 270 win, I would be catatonic with a 424 win, somewhere between that is the likely outcome  

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  1. NavyBlueWife

    (see prior discussion… if i could find it…)

    where does the live girl/dead boy idea come from?  i see it a lot, but i don’t know where it comes from…


    it occurred to me that McCain’s problem and especially since he picked Palin as a running mate is similar to the Democrat’s problem in Texas.

    It resembles a gerrymandering problem.  While McCain has huge leads in the bible belt states, it doesn’t help him win an election. (There’s a smaller Mormon bible belt running North from Utah as well.) Obama has the advantage because he has smaller leads in all the other states.

    McCain’s strongest supporters are concentrated rather than spread out so he can hold his own in national polling but when it breaks down by states, he loses.  As long as the Republicans continue to pander to the far right Evangelicals they won’t get back into power.  

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