Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

The durability of Obama’s lead

Stability is the consistent name of the game this season.  Barack Obama has proven himself stable in the face of John McCain’s erratic behavior, but Obama also has proven himself consistent in his lead of McCain.

The morning trackers are out.  Rasmussen shows a steady race:

Obama 50

McCain 45

Rasmussen observes:

The data continues to suggest a very stable race with Obama as the clear frontrunner. This is the eighteenth straight day that Obama’s support has stayed in the narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45%

Research 2000/Daily Kos similarly shows a steady race:

Obama 52

McCain 40

DemFromCT notes:

Obama’s percentage has been at or above 50 since 9/29.

Battleground/GWU similarly calls it a steady race with their numbers the same as they were at the last report:

Obama 51

McCain 43

Diageo Hotline has its numbers out:

Obama 48

McCain 42

Significantly, I think, the poll observes, “The IL Sen. leads 51-38% among LVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, NV, FL, OH, PA, VA and WI.”

I think the “point here” and “point there” fluctuations we have seen in the polls over the last several weeks represent nothing but normal statistical variations in the data rather than any meaningful movement in people’s sensibilities.  Analysts who look at polls typically and understandably like to focus on the margins between the candidates, and those data certainly are consequential, but I have seen almost no one commenting about the relentless consistency of Obama’s lead.  Except for a short period after the Republican convention, Obama invariably has bested McCain in almost every single poll for the last four-and-a-half months.  I think that is the most important fact before us just three weeks before the presidential election.  

As Shakespeare once surmised, “What is past is prologue.”


  1. spacemanspiff

    Thanks for being on top of this always.

    Today is Monday! Which means that another week just went by.

    Which means we’re that much closer to taking the White House.

    Obama has to run out the clock.

    The past few weeks are going to be as slow as (PRican lingo here)…

    ” An tar filled I.V. drip.”

  2. sricki

    I’m still not free of anxiety — and perhaps that’s best — but I feel far better than I did a few weeks ago, for obvious reasons.

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