Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

First Three of Sunday’s Tracking Polls are Out

Rasmussen has Obama up one point further over McCain than this poll showed him yesterday:

Obama 51

McCain 44

That’s a seven-point spread.  Rasmussen had this interesting and pithy analysis based upon his analysis of persuadable voters:

One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant–game-changing-event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.

Moreover, as I posted in the immediately prior post, there is no way to guarantee that a major event will work in McCain’s favor; game-changing events have tended in this race to work in Obama’s favor.

Diageo Hotline views the race essentially even with where it stood yesterday:

Obama 48

McCain 41

That’s a seven point spread.

Research 2000/Daily Kos see the race even with where it was yesterday:

Obama 52

McCain 40

DemFromCT observes about the interals:

On successive days in the R2K poll, Obama was up +12 Thurs, +13 Fri and +13 Sat (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)

One more +13 days, and either Obama will rise to 53% in this poll, or McCain will fall below 40.


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