Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Today’s Polls Matter/Don’t Matter Post

Today’s polling numbers:

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 48, McCain 47



Obama 45, McCain 44

Research 2000/Daily Kos

Obama 50, McCain 42

Now, as you all know, the national tracking polls are pretty much a popularity contest- obviously, we’re in a race for 270 electoral votes- the same as it was when McCain was leading nationally. But it’s an encouraging sign, nonetheless. Couple that with interesting trendlines from Rasmussen’s crosstabs, like that 55% polled say Obama will increase government spending… but 55% also say McCain will do the same thing (so much for the dream of small government, eh?). Or how 60% disagree with McCain’s assessment of economy as “fundamentally sound”, and see corporate America as more to blame than  either President Bush or the Congress.

The poll I take the most stock in is the Rasmussen poll. While the Gallup and Research 2000 polls are encouraging, the Research 2000 poll is, of course, commissioned by DailyKos. There’s been no evidence it’s inherently biased, since it’s run by a third-party company (and it would truly be a detriment to Kos if it were biased), but an eight point spread is pretty aggressive.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, by Kos’ own admission was one of the best pollsters of the 2006 cycle, and it has a working relationship with Fox News. Moreover, about a week ago, they changed their poll weighting a few percentage points to favor the GOP. There was debate over whether or not that was an accurate reflection, but even given that, Obama is leading McCain… and it damn near (by Rasmussen’s own admission) the magic 50% threshold.

I think that McCain needed to be able to keep his covention/Palin bounce until the first debate, at least. Now, it’ll be much harder for him to regain this ground.

We’ll be back later with a look at this cycle’s battleground/tipping point states, as well as a look at the breathless “OH MY GOD, IT’S THE BRADLEY EFFECT” articles suddenly being churned out by the right-wing press.


  1. ragekage

    In Charlottesville, Virginia on Wednesday, Michelle Obama pointed out that the Commonwealth of Virginia may well choose the next President of the United States. An astute observation, if I do say so myself. But is it the most likely? Tune in later to find out. Until then, we’ll be playng rerns of Red Dwarf and Alf.

  2. GrassrootsOrganizer

    Today I heard some pundit on CNN say it comes down to this  — McCain can’t win without Florida — Obama can’t win without Michigan.

    Eerie, no?  I’m feeling fucking clairvoyant right now.  

  3. ragekage

    I don’t think Obama could win without Michigan, and I don’t think McCain could win without Florida. But I could say McCain couldn’t win without Texas, and Obama without Illinois. 😉

    But you’re right, both states are lynchpins, though I think Florida is more likely to flip that Michigan.

  4. All the republican chickens are coming home to roost.

    And then the Obama campaign is punching hard on both the ‘deregulation’ meme, and the lobbyist connection. Check out Obama’s speech

    Obama is using this brilliantly

    “There’s only one candidate who’s called himself “fundamentally a deregulator” when deregulation is part of the problem. My opponent actually wrote in the current issue of a health care magazine — the current issue, quote, “Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.” So let me get this straight — he wants to run health care like they’ve been running Wall Street. Well, senator, I know some folks on Main Street who aren’t going to think that’s a good idea. “


    This is his speech from Florida, and he pulls no punches. He just doesn’t let up. It’s fucking devastating. Just like his early analysis of Iraq. It’s not about Obama, but he’s smart enough to see what’s going on. Expect the polls to trend more upwards to 50 per cent.

    I’ve never seen a dem candidate, even Bill Clinton, just not let up like this. It’s inspiriing. Because it’s true.  

  5. spacemanspiff

    you know the media is going to cook some shit up soon. Drudge has been trying to push the “racism” angle HARD. Now FOX is trying to shift the conversation with the Pakistan blast. We have to stay focused and know not to get all chicken little like many on the blogsphere did a couple of weeks ago.

    The first debate is coming up! I know many think Obama is not a “good debater” and that myth was created during the primaries.

    Why didn’t he seem “great”?

    He was debating Hillary Clinton. Nuff said. She is a beast and a wonk.

    Nobody looks good debating Hills.

    Still, Obama held his own pretty well except in the ABC ambush.

    McCain sucketh. He is really bad at debates and loses his temper easily. Obama has great one liners and is hard to rattle. If he keeps his cool and comes off presidential…. Game. Set. Match.

    We live bloggin the debate right? EPIC! I’m nervous already.

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