Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Listen to *this* Guy!

The problem with the U.S. Senate polls heading into the final week before election day is that when you dig a little deeper, they are essentially saying that most of the races are “too close to call”.

Yet that does not stop the breathless headlines: “Democrats will be crushed by Republican wave” or “Democratic majority doomed”.

I recommend listening to this Guy, Guy Cecil, who says that we can win ALL the close Senate elections if we just get out the vote, even in states where there are more Republicans than Democrats.

How? Well, state by state (from the video):

– CO (mail-in means 2 million more voters than in 2010),

– AR (95,000 more AA voters, 5% bump),

– LA (900,000 new AA voters since Katrina),

– AK (Turnout among native people),

– NC (education is #2 issue which has no anti-Obama component),

– IA (D dominating early vote, non-2010 voters are voting Democratic),

– GA (New AA voters, maximize Atlanta and southern GA),

– KY (Tied, key is turnout in Louisville, high negatives for McConnell),

– SD (Not giving up),

– NH (Shaheen is up and will stay up)

– MN (Franken is a lock)

New voters, re-energized voters, non-2010 voters. Democratic voters.

So who is this Guy and why should we listen to him?

Guy Cecil is the Executive Director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the organization charged with electing … Democratic Senators.

He is also this guy:

A framed New York Times front page hangs on the wall behind Guy Cecil’s desk.

“Democrats take the Senate,” the headline reads, a reminder of his role on the front lines in helping his party win back the majority in 2006 as political director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

(Note: That is the current Senate Majority … a BHD because it was the base for an expanded Senate majority in 2008 which led to passing health care reform in 2010, making health care a right not a privilege, a Democratic Party goal for 60 years. Those 2008 Senators are the ones up for re-election in 2014.)

In 2010, Guy Cecil ran the campaign of Michael Bennet, the appointed Democratic Senator from Colorado, and got his candidate elected in a Republican wave year. At Senator Bennet’s request, he took over the reins of the DSCC in 2011. And he says we can win them all.

SO PLEASE, don’t give up until the last vote is counted on November 4th.

“Don’t look at the polls, GET TO THE POLLS”.

p.s. That wasn’t Guy, that was me channeling a Guy.


7 comments

  1. In the spirit of this post, only the silver lining will be blockquoted:

    Nate Silver:

    Both YouGov and NBC/Marist released results among both registered voters and likely voters in each of the states they polled – and on average, their likely-voter models showed the Republican candidate doing a net of about 2.5 percentage points better than in the registered-voter version of their surveys. That’s in line with the historical average gap between registered and likely voters in midterm years – rather than the 6-point gap that persisted throughout 2010.

    … with Democrats actually holding an advantage nationally among RVs, a truly heroic GOTV effort could theoretically change a lot of results. It’s simply not clear whether or not LV screens are picking up “unenthusiastic” voters who could nonetheless get pushed and pulled to the ballot box.

  2. @Taniel: Hagan seeing turnout she needs: Dems have cast 110% as many votes as at same point in 2010; Republicans have cast 81% as many votes. #NCSen

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