Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Let the Debate about Debates Begin: A Debatably Open Thread

The first Presidential Debate is in a few days. Common wisdom is that this will be the last chance Mitt Romney has to distract from an endless series of misfortunes and turn around GOP hopes for the White House.

Will Mr. Romney step up to the plate better than he did when others paid $50,000 to clean theirs listening to him? Will he be able to come across as a Regular Guy not completely out of touch with the reality others live in?

Hey, how about a friendly $10,000 wager on the outcome? That’s what regular people do, right?

Thomas Friedman at the New York Times points out the other major “not getting it” area Mr. Romney suffers from. The on-going contention that we live in a world where Democrats are craven on matters of foreign affairs while the US has unlimited international clout. Perhaps this is simply offered as fodder for the Tea Party base – though I somehow don’t think so, I think he believes it.

But it isn’t 1989. The Soviet Union has not just collapsed, China is not just emerging as a global economic force, and the Internet is not something only used by geeks to share UUENCODED porn (an the occasional research paper).

Rather than really thinking afresh about the world, Romney has chosen instead to go with the same old GOP bacon and eggs – that the Democrats are toothless wimps who won’t stand up to our foes or for our values, that the Republicans are tough and that it is 1989 all over again. That is, the U.S. stands astride the globe with unrivaled power to bend the world our way, and the only thing missing is a president with “will.” The only thing missing is a president who is ready to simultaneously confront Russia, bash China, tell Iraqis we’re not leaving their country, snub the Muslim world by outsourcing our Arab-Israel policy to the prime minister of Israel, green light Israel to bomb Iran – and raise the defense budget while cutting taxes and eliminating the deficit.

The article is short enough that it is almost worth quoting verbtim, but I will resist (at least by a sentence or two).

It is a globalized economy in which the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the U.S.’ largest business lobby, has opposed Romney’s pledge to designate China as a currency manipulator and is pressing Congress to lift Cold War trade restrictions on Russia, a country Romney has labeled the U.S.’ “No. 1 geopolitical foe.”

In personal and political matters it is always my preference to use subtle tools backed up by extreme measures whose existence and shape are mostly inferred by the words you don’t use to talk about them. For most of human history this has not been the most often used approach – actual force and fiery rhetoric litter the fields of our past. And perhaps that has been as it should be in a world where actual barbarians with actual swords could ride and rape through the countryside at a given moment. But those days seem long gone, even for those of us old enough to remember them personally.

And good riddance to bad rubbish.

Ronald Reagan presided over the dying days of that era. For all his hawkish legacy he fought the more subtle game that Romney and the modern GOP dismiss, portraying America as the “Shining city on a hill” for others to follow and the Soviet Union as unsophisticated jackbooted clouts. He won by befriending the leader of the USSR and then calling on him to “tear down this wall”.

Mr. Romney is as out of touch with the modern world as he is with modern Americans if he does not understand that we know this, now. That we understand winning without a club, without unrestricted ownership of the situation.

This complexity doesn’t argue for isolationism. It argues for using our power judiciously. For instance, if you had listened to Romney criticizing Obama for weakness after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, you’d have thought that, had Romney been president, he would have immediately ordered some counterstrike. But, had we done so, it would have aborted what was a much more meaningful response: Libyans themselves taking to the streets under the banner “Our Revolution Will Not Be Stolen” and storming the headquarters of the Islamist militias who killed the U.S. ambassador. It shows you how much this complexity can surprise you.

Romney doesn’t understand winning by subtle means. He lives in a slash-and-burn world that no longer exists.


91 comments

  1. “I will exercise sobriety, care, stability and make sure in a setting like this anything I say that can affect a place with rockets going in – with people dying – I don’t do anything that would harm that process. And therefore, before I make a statement of that nature, I get on the phone to my friend Bibi Netanyahu and say ‘Would it help if I said this? What would you like me to do?'”

    Except, perhaps, when it is in your personal political interest?

  2. LA Times has this:

    Hubscher watched the Republican convention and was deeply impressed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. “I felt a connection to the things he was talking about,” he said. By contrast, Romney, who spoke later the same night, made little impression. His campaign, Hubscher said, boils down to, “‘Look what a bad job Obama’s done, and I’m not that guy.’ That’s not good enough.”

    Even among Romney backers, that sense of disappointment came up frequently. When asked what they remembered of the two party conventions, only one of the four dozen interviewed brought up Romney’s speech.

    Sounds like my response to Kerry’s “I am not George Bush” pitch. And Bush was in a much tougher spot imhho.

    People generally need more than not being the other guy to replace an incumbent President.

  3. virginislandsguy

    Debate drinking game:

    Romney

    Millions unemployed

    Failed/Failure

    Job creators

    Taxes

    Regulations

    Obama

    More new jobs than Bush 1st term (TY BLS benchmarking!)

    “Let Detroit go bankrupt”

    Tax returns

    47(%) 47(th in nation as governor)

    Bain

    Style

    Romney: Overdoes his Reaganesque zingers. Relies on ‘5 Easy Pieces’ when stressed.

    Obama: Counter punches zingers effectively, Romney no followup.

    Overall, I agree with Chuck Todd that Pres. Obama will be very aggressive. Ted Kennedy showed the way in ’94. Romney will wilt under the attack. So, 1st third – slight advantage Romney, 2nd third – slight advantage Obama, last third – clear advantage Obama.

    Pundits: Will feign surprise and dismay at Obama’s aggressive performance. Romney clears low bar of expectations but not enough to move the polling needle.

    Instapolls: Majority will say Obama won

    Obama wins in a split decision on his toughest debate topic and maintains polling momentum.

  4. fogiv

    select snips:

    If Obama’s “You didn’t build that” is structural functionalism, Romney’s “We built it” is Barthian transactionalism.

    Moreover, transactionalism suggests that societies are the most stable and harmonious when groups don’t compete to make their livings, instead occupying their own economic niches. It’s a construction that sheds light on why Romney’s comfortable taking about the poor and middle class as “them.” There’s nothing wrong with them, necessarily; they’re just doing their own thing.

    A History of Anthropological Theory explains further: “Social relationships are ‘generated,’ sustained, and changed as a result of the economic choices made by individuals, each of whom has learned to play and manipulate the ‘rules’ of a social ‘game.'” It also helps explain Romney’s disdain for the 47% of Americans who, in his flawed thinking, refuse to play the game. He literally has no way to understand them.

    The rejection of transactionalism often seems rooted in the idea that understanding the world that way misses too much of its magic and meaning. It’s not crazy to think that whether you see life as the product of give-and-takes or the fruit of society’s complexities determines somewhat whether you’re a Romney fan or an Obama fan. Barthian thinking has fallen out of favor, to some extent.

    It turned out that it makes people uncomfortable to think about the world reduced to a series of transactions.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/pol

  5. HappyinVT

    markknoller 6:52pm via Web

    WH announces Pres Obama will designate home, workplace & gravesite of farm workers labor leader Cesar Chavez as a National Monument

  6. Shaun Appleby

    Not what you want to read if you are the Romney campaign:


    The Romney campaign is experiencing what some officials believe could be the beginning of a mass exodus of big money donors diverting their cash away from the Republican presidential hopeful and toward Republican candidates for the House and Senate races more likely to win in November, the FOX Business Network has learned.

    The trend isn’t at the acute stage, at least not yet, said one person with direct knowledge of the matter.

    Charlie Gasparino – Romney Losing Donors to GOP House, Senate Candidates Fox Business 1 Oct 12

    Yet another headwind in the last five weeks.

  7. Total number of posts: 3186

    Total number of comments: 76659

    Top 10 list of most active users (by # of comments)

    Chris Blask – 7829

    Shaun Appleby – 7667

    John Allen – 7361

    HappyinVT – 6797

    Peter Jukes – 5268

    fogiv – 5181

    spacemanspiff – 3511

    DTOzone – 2574

    Hollede – 2519

    sricki – 2202

    Top 10 list of most active users (by # of posts)

    Hollede – 283

    Chris Blask – 273

    Inoljt – 184

    Peter Jukes – 154

    borderjumpers – 130

    sricki – 126

    John Allen – 119

    DCDemocrat – 118

    canadian gal – 106

    ragekage – 101

    Hmmm, I didn’t know I talked so much (d’oh!)

    Appleby is catching up on comments (slacker!).

  8. Shaun Appleby

    This is how soft power looks when it works:


    NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) – Allied African troops have taken full control of Kismayo in Somalia, the last stronghold of [al-Qaeda affiliated] Islamist rebels who have been fighting against the country’s internationally backed government, a Kenyan military official said Tuesday.

    Remnants of the militants, known as al-Shabab, executed seven civilians who did not support them in the southern part of Kismayo on Monday, the Kenyan military said.

    Kenya Defense Forces and the Somali National Army are now patrolling the streets of Kismayo, Kenyan military spokesman Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir said through Twitter. He said that the troops had secured the city’s central police station and the new airport. He said military aircraft will start landing there.

    Tom Odula – Somalia: Kenyan army says it now controls Kismayo AP via Google 2 Oct 12

    Coalition of neighbouring states – check.

    Legitimate governments acting in their own interests – check.

    Long term action deliberately planned and determinedly executed – check.

    Western technology and military expertise applied effectively at tipping point – check.

    Major blow to an asymmetrical opponent who has eluded American power for decades – check.

    Americans don’t even know it is happening, then…  Bingo.  Sometimes I think we watch way too many action flicks for our own good.

  9. fogiv

    Since the Republican Legislature passed laws last year to regulate groups that independently register voters in Florida, Democrats have swamped Republicans in registering new voters.

    State elections data show that, through Sept. 24, the Florida Democratic Party had registered more than 230,741 new voters since the laws went into effect July 1, 2011. Republicans had turned in just 46,373 new voter registrations during that time.

    [snip]

    Democrats had a head start on Republicans. Much of the state party’s effort was shared with the Barack Obama campaign, which never completely shut down after he won the presidency in 2008. His Organize for America offices reopened all over Florida in the spring of 2011. Republicans and Romney did not begin full-scale efforts to organize field offices and volunteers until a year later.

    [snip]

    University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith, who studies voter registration, said that although the new laws stifled most third-party registration efforts, the Democrats were undeterred – and much better organized than the Republicans.

    http://www.orlandosentinel.com

  10. Strummerson

    The bad: Romney has been focusing on zingers and the remaining “persuadables” are the kind of zinger voters that Chris and I disagree about.  I don’t think most of them are engaged centrists or independents of conviction.  I think the majority are superficial, low information jackasses and I detest the fact that they decide elections.

    The good: Romney isn’t capable of delivering zingers in a likable fashion.  So even if he succeeds he won’t likely remedy the likability gap between the candidates.  And zinger voters are also voters who respond to likability to an excessive degree.

  11. virginislandsguy

    Released this morning:

    According to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, “The September increase [162,000] was above the consensus forecast for today’s release and for the official jobs number due out Friday from The Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Continued solid gains in employment since Spring further allay fears that the broad economic recovery may be undermined by a softening trend in employment.  The gain in private employment in September is strong enough to suggest that the national unemployment rate may have declined.

    U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP National Employment Report

    Bold for emphasis.

    This leads me to believe that the Friday BLS report will be +175K jobs and U3 of 7.9%

    The potential fall in U3 may be due to distorting seasonal adjustments. See the historical data below:

      Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
    2011 84 96 85 202 112
    2012 45 141 96 TBD TBD

    Note the huge jump to 202K in Sept. ’11. If history repeats itself, Pres. Obama will cruise to reelection.

  12. Shaun Appleby

    Is is October yet?:


    When President Obama signed the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, in July 2010, the official Iranian rial-U.S. dollar exchange rate was very close to the black-market rate. But … the official and black-market rates have increasingly diverged since July 2010. This decline began to accelerate last month, when Iranians witnessed a dramatic 9.65% drop in the value of the rial, over the course of a single weekend (8-10 September 2012). The free-fall has continued since then. On 2 October 2012, the black-market exchange rate reached 35,000 IRR/USD – a rate which reflects a 65% decline in the rial, relative to the U.S. dollar.

    Steve H Hanke – Hyperinflation Has Arrived In Iran Cato@Liberty 3 Oct 12

    Wondering if Romney gets a revised set of talking points for the debate?  Doubtful.

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