Motley Moose – Archive

Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Challenging the "Permanent Democratic Majority" Thesis

This is the first part of two posts analyzing and challenging  the idea of a “permanent Democratic majority.” The second part can be  found here.

A “Permanent Democratic Majority”

The permanent Democratic majority is a theory spun by many Democratic  analysts optimistic about their party’s future. It asserts that  demographic changes will leave the Republican Party in a state of  perpetual minority.

Let’s take a look at this thesis and the underlying assumptions upon which it relies.

When Democratic strategists talk about demographic change, they are  talking about how America will move to the left as it becomes  majority-minority.

But not all minorities are increasing in number – the black  population, for instance, is expected to stay relatively constant. It is  Asian and Hispanic growth that is responsible for demographic change.  Specifically, however, people are focusing on Hispanic growth. To most  politicians the increase in Asians is, at most, a secondary concern  (although it is quite conceivable that Asians might end up voting more  Democratic than Hispanics). So the permanent Democratic majority is  really talking about the growing number of Democratic-voting Hispanics.

There are two fundamental assumptions that the permanent Democratic majority thesis makes.

Assumption #1: Hispanics will continue voting Democratic.

This is quite an obvious assumption. Let’s examine its validity.

The story of the Hispanic community is remarkably similar to the  story of previous immigrant communities in America. Hispanics came to  the United States to chase economic opportunity unavailable in their  homes. They built substantial communities in major cities and became a  politically valuable constituency. Like other immigrants – the Irish,  the Germans, the Italians – they then faced resistance: nativist  defenses of the English language, attempts to restrict immigration. Some  of the battles Hispanics currently face are almost exactly the same as those white ethnics faced a century ago.

Unfortunately, these similarities also are bad news for hopeful  Democrats. Previous immigrants, such as Catholics, also constituted  strong Democratic constituencies. Yet as these immigrants assimilated  and became absorbed into America’s melting pot, they voted steadily less  and less Democratic. Catholics went from casting around 80% of the  ballot for Catholic nominee John F. Kennedy to voting Republican in  2004, even as the Catholic John Kerry ran as the Democratic nominee. As  Hispanics follow the paths of previous immigrant groups, they too will  steadily trend Republican.

Ahhh, a Democratic strategist might say, but you’re forgetting  something. Unlike the Irish or the Germans, Hispanics belong to a  different race than whites. As one intelligent poster wrote on the  previous link, “Mexicans…have the disadvantage of being ‘people of  color.’ Even if language ceases to be a problem, they are still faced  with significant racism.”

This is quite a valid counterpoint; if Hispanics are treated more  like blacks and less like the Irish, then there is certainly something  to the permanent Democratic majority thesis. This argument will be  discussed more in this post, if one is interested.

But this leads to the second assumption that the permanent Democratic majority thesis makes:

Assumption #2: White movement to the Republican Party will not overwhelm Hispanics.

Name, for a second, the states with the highest black populations in  America. These are Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Georgia, and  Maryland. Blacks constitute some of the most loyal Democrats in the  United States, and yet four out of five of these states are Republican  strongholds.

White voters in Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Georgia  are some of the most conservative in the country. Their degree of conservatism regularly overwhelms the uniformly Democratic black vote there.

If, then, Hispanics are treated as blacks and thus begin voting like  blacks, that still does not guarantee a Democratic majority. White movement rightwards could still be powerful enough to more than overwhelm Hispanics.

Yes, a Democratic strategist might reply, but you’re ignoring the  blackest “state” of them all: Washington D.C. Today Washington is  majority-black, and yet whites are some of the most liberal in the country.  The same is true for Maryland and cities around the country. Does that  not constitute evidence that white movement rightwards is not a certainty?

It certainly does. The great question, if Hispanics go down the path  of blacks, is how whites will react: will they follow the path of  Mississippi, or will they follow the path of Washington D.C.?

What is true, however, is that whites are trending Republican anyways. Here is a picture of the white vote over time:

The reasons for why this is happening are incredibly complex, and  something which scholars can debate for a long, long time. Nevertheless,  the phenomenon definitely exists, and there is no reason to see why it  will not continue.

A Personal Opinion

The analysis up to this point has been fairly skeptical of the “permanent Democratic majority” thesis. If one is interested, here is a post which articulates my personal opinion on what will happen to the Hispanic vote which underlies this theory.

–Inoljt


5 comments

  1. Well one was rather glaring in that you described the hispanic experience in this country like other western immigrants and the big cities etc, however the big city I live in is called Los Angeles and I can find homes of “immigrants” within miles of my house that are like 200 years old.  I believe that lady from Desperate Housewives Eva Langoria’s family has lived under 5 different national flags in Texas.  

    The way you discuss white movement rightward makes me fearful of running a foul of Goodwin.  Kind of makes me get the vibe that White superiority is the goal of White people and that it will continue to be allowed to be a motivator, I must ask if that’s the case why does this country deserve to continue.

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